This week's report lists 98 silver stocks. There are 31 silver
stocks that list reserves, resources (and exploration potential.) which I
calculate by using my "ounce in the ground" forumula. There are 45
explorers. There are about 22 additional "silver" stocks with incomplete
information. Additions & Changes from
last week are in bold.
If this is the first time you have seen this report, please try to read
the entire report before sending me an email. This report goes
out now to 7245 investors each week in email, and I do not have time to
respond to all the questions from new readers--questions that are
already answered in this report. After you have read the report,
I would be more than happy to try and answer your question, as it may
help me to provide additional commentary on the silver market.
(I'm not the person to ask about any specific stock. Contact the
company, not me. I will not answer questions about why I buy or
sell--I buy when I think cheap, and I sell when I either think
expensive, or that I feel that cheaper opportunities exist elsewhere.)
If you are an Accredited or Sophisticated investor and want information
I may find out about private placement opportunities in some of the very
best silver stocks in my opinion, (This is not a solicitation for any stock,
and I'm not brokering any securities) email me with PP in the subject field:
jasonhommel@yahoo.com(As
of this week, for the first time in a while, I know of no private
placement opportunities at the present time that are not already
oversubscribed. But I do know of a few potential opportunities
that may be available in the near future.) I can't tell you exactly which silver stocks to buy several reasons.
First, I'm not your broker. Second, too many people ask. Third,
if I told you what I was buying as I was buying it, you'd buy, and push
the price up against me. If
this sounds wrong, it's not. It's common sense, and it's how the
market works. People bring what they have to sell to the market
place and advertise it. That's capitalism and the free market at
work. If you tell me about a silver stock not on this list, I expect
that you would have invested in it first. I wouldn't want to put
your recommendation on this list, and drive up the price of your hot
undervalued silver stock before you buy your great tip! So, buy
it first, and then tell the world what you did and how smart of an
investor you are and how much homework you did to find your favorite
unknown silver junior.
So,
because I have a market reach, I also receive a lot of tips about
silver stocks. And thus, I may have invested in some of the best
ones that came my way. If you believe I may have an edge based on
my work and position... then the best way for me to share this with you
is to is tell you where I put my money. It's not investment advice.
I offer a monthly "look at my portfolio". Try it for a month, and
see if it works for you. I do not issue recommendations, and I don't
list number of shares or the size of my portfolio, but
I will show the top investments in my portfolio, by rank, updated monthly.
To read about my religious bias, see my other website,
bibleprophesy.org
There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I believe
the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money again before
the end times. Hint, see Ezekiel 38. To read more about my religious bias when it comes to investing, see my new essay, Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money
If you want to receive an email notice of when and where this FREE weekly
report is published, sign up at goldismoney.com
Anyone who signs up will also get a FREE e-book that explains
the bullish case for gold and especially silver. If you have studied
the silver market at all, then the time has come that you ought to be a
teacher, and you ought to explain the silver story to all who will listen.
goldismoney.com
is designed to help spread the word. I suggest you email the link to
your address book.
Kitco
reports silver at $7.53 as of Friday, 2:45 PM West Coast US, which was used to calculate the following
figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is
.7495. I will use .75 for ease. Because silver rose so much
this week, and many of the silver companies did not rise by an equal
percentage, then, in terms of silver, their prices were "down".
How to read the following table:
Stock Symbol that works at Yahoo! Finance (Company name) / Silver oz.
"in ground"** for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. / valuation price change since last
week relative to silver price change (and stock dilution, and resource changes, if any) /
additional comments (EXPT is "exploration potential")
NBG.V NBULF.PK (NEW BULLET GP) 37 - 105 "exploration potential"
SDR.V SDURF.PK (STROUD RSCS)
* CBE.V CBEFF.PK (CABO MINING) --Historic Silver and Cobalt district
EXN.V EXLLF.PK (EXCELLON RSCS)
EPZ.V ESPZF.PK (ESPERANZA SILVR)
BCM.V BCEKF.PK (BEAR CRK MINING)
NJMC.OB (NEW JERSEY MIN)
CHMN.PK (CHESTER MINING)
* KG.V KDKGF.PK (KLONDIKE GOLD)
GNG.V GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH) --Historic silver
district in Mexico
MMG.V MMEEF.PK (MCMILLAN GOLD)
* KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY)
EGD.V EGDMF.PK (ENERGOLD MINING)
LEG.V LEGCF.PK (LATEEGRA RSCS)
SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER)
BGS.V BLDGF.PK (BALLAD GLD SLVR)
* AUN.V AUNFF.PK (AURCANA CORP)
SRY.V (STINGRAY RSCS)
PCM.V PAOCF.PK (PAC COMOX RES)
BBR.V BBRRF.PK (BRETT RES)
TUO.V TEUTF.PK (TEUTON RES)
ASLM.PK (AMER SILVER MINI)
ROK.V ROCAF.PK (ROCA MINES INC)
CBP.V CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN)
* = I own shares
** = "in ground" counts all "silver oz. in the ground" as the same,
but they are NOT EQUAL. Some are more certain and others are more
speculative. Some are higher grades, some are lower grades.
They range from most certain to least certain such as: "proven & probable
reserves," "measured, indicated, inferred resources." This single
number next to each stock symbol above represents the approximate number
of ounces of silver in the ground you are buying title to when you invest
the equivalent of one ounce of silver by buying shares in the company at
current prices. (It does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but
it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.)
At goldsheetlinks.com, they add 100% of proven & probable reserves,
but only 70% of measured & indicated resources, and only 50% of inferred
resources. I don't do that. I count them as all the same.
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the
symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below.
-------------
WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
Out of the mouths
of babes. This week, an 11-year-old who I will call Jed
wrote: "I think people should buy silver because they might be
rich in the future. They might be rich because we might change
back to using silver. Also if people don't start buying silver
they might be poor in the future."
That says it all,
doesn't it? What an incredible introduction to an essay on silver! Even an
11-year-old can understand and express the essential fundamentals of
the silver market--perhaps more simply and eloquently than I can.
Silver is real money, and paper is not! The wisdom of Jed
continues: "But also there's a downside if you buy a lot of
silver right now you might be poor right now so don't buy as much as
possible. When I got my first [batch] of silver I thought that I
should sell it all. I sold [half] of it but then I realized how
much more money it is than a green piece of paper. So now
whenever I get money I buy silver." I love it! Jed
recognizes that becoming rich requires saving money, and that requires you
to not spend recklessly, and he understands that saving in silver is
best!
Jed concludes: "I think people
should buy silver right now because it isn't that much money. And
in the future it will be a lot of money. I think silver will be
at $13 in the next year. I think it will be that much money
because more and more people are starting to realize that silver is
worth a lot so the price will go up."
I think Jed is a
very bright kid. And I also think that his wisdom and market
commentary is far superior to most of the market commentary you will
ever read on silver. His commentary even included a price
prediction, followed by a solid reason why that price should be
reached! Thank you Jed!
In
the interest of full disclosure, Jed has been investing in silver since
$5.25/oz. a few months ago, and he's been watching the price rise since
then. Before he wrote his commentary, I told Jed, "The better you
write, the more you will be paid." The ultimate test of the
value of Jed's commentary is your feedback. Therefore, I have
decided to do the following: I did not tell Jed this, but I have
decided to pay Jed one silver quarter (worth about $1.35) for every
positive email I receive (minus one silver quarter for
each negative email) in the next week that mentions Jed by name.
Send your comments, rebukes or encouragement for Jed, to jasonhommel@yahoo.com
For example, let's examine the lunacy of several statements by the "respected" analysts in the above article: "...analysts
predict the metal’s stay at the top will be short-lived as its
fundamentals remain suspect." First of all, the article was written on Monday,
March 15, and by Friday, March 19th, we see that $7 was not "the" top, since silver hit
$7.72 only a few days later, on Friday. Second, the statement clearly shows that
analysts don't understand the first thing about the fundamentals of the
silver market, because they apparently have no clue about the differences and
similarities between silver and paper money.
Here is another foolish statement by an analyst quoted in the mineweb article: "Philip
Newman, an analyst at consultancy GFMS, says $7/oz was reached because
of the poor liquidity in the Silver market. He said any transaction,
however small, could cause the large price fluctuations.Newman said it was difficult to justify the current price..."
Obviously, if the silver market is small, and the paper money market is
huge, then this implies something very special and that something
tremendous is about to happen. But it does not mean the change in
valuations is unjustified. On the contrary, it means the change in
valuation is very justified! Lots of paper money, and very little
silver left... an 11-year-old can understand the obvious implications
of that, but an experienced analyst does not understand!
Next, another analyst, Michael DiRienzo Acting Executive Director and Secretary at the Silver Institute, thinks that "the big question for the silver market" is "demand
for the silver enriched photographic paper." Excuse me, but the
11-year-old and I disagree. The big question for the silver
market is how much paper money there is, and how little silver is
left. --------------------------
Let me open up and be as truthful with you as I can be. It's all I can do.
In January, 2003, I wrote one article on silver and Cardero
Resources. I received positive feedback and I got a few silver
stock tips in email, which I acted on slowly and then more quickly as
time went by. It was hard to buy a few of them, because as
I bought, the stocks that were so cheap (and it seemed, priced near
bankruptcy) moved up in price strongly. It was hard to
buy them without moving the price. And the stocks were not liquid
at all. Part of me wanted to keep it a total secret, and another part of
me wanted to tell the world of the amazing investment opportunities I'd
found. But realistically, the last thing I wanted to do was write
about the companies that I thought were great buys--because I was still
struggling to buy them at great prices!
Finally, about 6 months ago, I wrote my first of what would be
these
weekly articles... and I was very nervous about writing. I was
nervous because I felt that if I let the information out, the
opportunities would be lost. After all, the prices of my favorite
stocks that I was buying would take off.
The
results 6 months ago after my first weekly silver report were astounding. The stocks that I thought were undervalued
on the list all exploded in price, and the overvalued ones all
dropped. I was astounded, and the results continued to amaze me
for weeks! And this list of stocks grew in number, and more people signed up to
receive it. I had no idea it would be so popular, and have such a
positive effect. Soon, based on the crushing load of incoming
email, I became more bullish on silver than ever before, because so
many people would write and tell me that they were going to be buying
many of the silver stocks on my list, and/or buying silver
bullion. And they still write. If the email to me is any
indication, this silver bull market is really just barely getting started, and
nobody knows where it will top.
We are nowhere near a top, in my opinion, based on my unique experience
doing this. My perspective is fresh, because I'm young and I
don't have the long time experience. I'm 33, going to be 34 in
April.
So, how do I make money by producing and giving away this list for free? Several ways.
1. The biggest money maker, by far, is capital appreciation of my
portfolio. People like my overall viewpoint, they learn about
silver stocks they otherwise might not know existed, and silver stocks in general have been rising rapidly. 2.
The next biggest money maker is through private placement
finder's fees. This is much, much less, but it's certainly worth
it. You, too, can make between 3% and 15% finder's fees if
you let wealthy investors know about private placements that are taking
place.
3. The third way I make money is through signups to goldismoney.com,
and this is not a big money maker compared to the finder's fees. This
third way pays for the webmaster team that handles and hosts
goldismoney.com, and it pays for the advertising to expand my market
reach.
I'm sharing this with you to help you become more successful investors,
and to help out the entire silver market. You can do the same things I'm
doing, and become your own focal point for a group of investors.
Although initially, I didn't want to tell anyone that I was buying silver stocks
because I didn't want the prices to move up against me, it greatly
helped me when I did, because I became aware of other silver stocks in
the process, and I learned a lot more.
If you had any hesitation about telling other people that silver is
real money, and that paper money is fraud, please realize you will be
better off if you spread the word. It boils down to this:
Do you want to help the world return to honest money, or would you
rather the fraud of paper money continue?
Part of me wants to keep it quiet about how easy it is to make money
from finder's fees from private placements. I don't want the
competition, obviously. But another part of me realizes the
truth, which is this: I know that if lots of people can be motivated by the truth about
money, and by the finder's fees, to go out and convince wealthy investors to invest
in silver stock private placements, then it will help silver and silver
stocks. Here's now. First, wealthy investors will become
educated about silver. Second, wealthy investors will invest in silver
stocks. Third, as wealthy investors make money from silver stocks,
they will be even more attracted to silver and silver stocks.
Fourth, any new silver that is produced by investing in silver stocks
will increase world silver production by a small amount that will still be miniscule compared to monetary demand.
You, too, can help your investments do well by telling other people
about silver, and silver stocks. You should do what you can to
spread the word about your investments. You will be rewarded, just
as I have been. Your investments will do better, and you will
learn more about the importance of being an advocate for truth.
It's very rewarding, both monetarily and spiritually!
If you are young, then do as I did, and spend your time relentlessly
convincing your family to invest in silver and silver stocks. If
you have family that is wealthy, then pound away at them, again and
again, until they see why silver is such a great investment. You
owe it to your family to sound the alarm loud and clear.
Convincing your family is a sale that you cannot afford to lose.
When hard times come, I'm sure you will be greatly rewarded.
Perhaps they will put you in charge of managing their full portfolio
after they see some astounding initial results.
For me, the hardest part about deciding to write about silver and
silver stocks was not the risk that I'd be wrong, after all, I believed
I was right. The hardest part was my fear that I would positively
influence the market, and that my investment opportunity would be
gone. I think I was right in that I have positively influenced
the silver market, but the investment opportunities are not gone.
Today, I see more opportunities in silver stocks than ever
before. So many of the best silver stocks have only moved up 3-4
fold and they have room to move up 30 fold or more from their initial
levels due to the insanely low price that silver had been for so long.
Let me tell you one very encouraging thing about wealthy investors, and
how you can earn some good money with finder's fees. Wealthy
investors are generally very, very arrogant. They believe they
own the world. And generally, they do. (But God really owns
it, of course). They also believe that if there is money to be
made in a market sector, that people will be forced to come to them to
ask them to help fund development. This is also generally
true. Therefore, the arrogant wealthy investors are just waiting
for someone to come along and educate them about silver and silver
bullion. So, wise wealty investors are surprisingly willing
to listen when you tell them about the 300% plus gains for silver
stocks for 2003. They will want a piece of the action. Many
will want a piece of the action in a very desperate way.
Eventually, they will panic, and will look directly to you for advice
if you have been the one feeding it to them about silver and silver
stocks. In this way, you will easily earn your finder's fees by
telling rich people that you know about silver, and silver stocks, and
private placements when you find out about them. This is my open
invitation to compete with me now. Take advantage of it.
Let's go make some money and help to change the world in the process.
I'm an optimist. I believe
that all paper money world wide is dying, and as it dies, I will
make a bundle in the process, and the economy of the USA and the rest
of the world will be greatly improved by that. When frauds collapse, and
debt slavery is destroyed as precious metals prices head to the moon,
boom times are sure to follow, as they always do.
Trust no man. That's why you buy silver. It's payment in
full. Silver is not a promise to pay that can be broken.
90% silver bullion cannot be counterfeited. Coining counterfeits
is not worth the effort. But do check your bags to make sure they
are real silver, and not clad coin bags, which sometimes appear.
The claims by the COMEX in that article are ridiculous. The CFTC source lied when he said, "The hypothetical [that longs would request
their silver] has never happened, so the amount of deliveries are
always a small number relative to the size of the amount of positions
traded."
That's a total lie, because in 1980,
the event that never happened, did happen. The longs were asking
for delivery, and the shorts could not come up with the silver, and
that's why there were limit up days to $50/oz., and rule changes, and
specific requests by the exchange to the Hunts that they do not request
delivery of silver. The hypothetical
happened again when Warren Buffet bought silver in 1997, when his order
for silver was not all filled with physical, and the shorts were
screaming bloody murder and market manipulation by some large
mysterious
longs. It took Warren Buffet's announcement that he was the one
buying silver to shut them up. The hypothetical has happened, and
will happen again.
Furthermore, position limits are
already an ongoing market default, because it shows that they cannot
honor agreements to deliver silver in size. Think about
that. Position limits! If you can't buy what you want to
buy with your money, then your money is no good! The dollar is
already no good when it comes to buying silver in size. What
would be the point of having position limits unless the shorts already
lacked the ability to deliver silver in size?
So, not only is the CFTC statement a lie, "The hypothetical [that longs would request
their silver] has never happened,"
but their argument is irrelevant. It's like saying, "we
have not yet defaulted (the lie), so therefore, a default is
impossible". Isn't that crazy? It's ridiculous, and totally
irrelevant! Arguing
about the likelihood of a default, is pointless after the
default!!! The entire purpose of the discussion of the chance of
default is to determine whether default is imminent, and what can be
done to prevent it. And preventing such defaults is the whole
reason for the existence of the CFTC to begin with. They are so
stupid they probably don't even know they got themselves into trouble
at this point. These CFTC
clowns are crooks, idiots, scammers, and liars. Mice in charge of
the cheese. They should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of
the law today, for obstruction of justice, issuing false statements,
and negligence of duty!
But before spending money to insure the prosecution of such criminals, it's best to
obtain money while it's cheap. Buy silver today, prosecute for
delivery failures tomorrow.
--------------------------
Ted Butler had some very positive comments to say about some of my
efforts on behalf of silver. Ted was writing that silver miners
should either buy silver, or withhold silver from the market.
Go see what what Ted wrote in his weekly commentary, "A
Modest Proposal" at http://www.investmentrarities.com/ or http://www.butlerresearch.com/ An exerpt:
To be fair, similar solutions have been suggested before by others.
For instance, Jason Hommel made a recent suggestion that the silver
miners should invest all, or most, of their corporate cash in real
silver. This was too radical an idea for the miners, although it should
be pointed out that had they followed his suggestion, immense profits
would have resulted. And since then, the silver companies have raised
staggering amounts of new corporate cash.
On November 26, 2003, when silver was about $5.25/oz., I wrote the article in which I suggested the miners invest
their cash in silver bullion before it hit $7/oz.:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1069879327.php
I have no way of knowing whether any
of the large cash rich silver companies have actually bought silver
bullion yet. For all I know they are buying bullion, but not
telling, because they are trying to buy silver in secret, and plan to
announce it after the fact. This would be the wisest
course of action. I do know that nearly all the cash rich silver
companies received my article, not only from me, but also from many of
my readers. So they are aware. And now, they are either
painfully, or profitably, aware of the recent price rise in silver, based on what they did.
The two biggest objections I have heard about my suggestion are these:
1. "It is not the job of the
silver mining company to "speculate" in silver bullion and play the
role of a bullion bank." --But on the contrary, it is also not the
job of a silver miner to speculate in paper dollars, and play the role
of a patsy and customer of their mortal enemies, the banks that issue
paper money that competes with silver money. Every investment
carries risk. The least risky investment is the default
investment that says "I'm not investing in anything right now," which
is not cash, but gold and silver bullion. You own real money,
gold and silver, when you refuse to invest in anything else. And
that's my suggestion... go back to using gold and silver as the
"default" position. Use it as you would use cash. Cash is
too risky, because it can go to zero value, but bullion cannot go to
zero value. Silver miners ought to at least keep their cash in
the form that is most appropriate to their investors, which can only be
silver--not gold, and not the Canadian dollar, not the U.S. dollar, not
the Argentine dollar, nor any other paper currency! This is not a
complicated issue!
2. "It is too risky to invest in
silver bullion, because the price may go down." --On the contrary,
if silver bullion is too risky, then nobody should be investing in
silver mining stocks at all, because the mining stocks are always more
volatile than silver bullion, which is the safest investment that
exists. If a silver miner thinks silver bullion is too risky, then
they should close their doors, abandon their mining claim, and walk
away, and let others take over the risks of mining!
My idea is not "radical," it's
rational. Unfortunately, in a world awash with lunatics and
insane persons, the rational ideas are too radical to accept. But
at least now, anyone can see the wisdom of my idea. As Ted wrote,
"had they followed his suggestion, immense profits
would have resulted."
In the real world, companies that produce a product actually pay
people to endorse their products. Shoe companies like Nike and
Reebock pay high profile athletes to wear their shoes and appear in
commercials. Ski companies pay top racers to ski on their skis
and hold them up in the finish line high over their heads to make sure
everyone can see the skis they are using.
In the real world, silver investors and stock holders are the owners of
production of silver. Silver investors should expect our
representatives, the silver mining companies, to endorse silver as a
product, and we should expect them to use silver in the best way that
silver can be used, which is as money. If they refuse to use
silver as money, and if they refuse to endorse our product, they should
be fired! Company executives should be fired, and silver stocks
should be sold in preference for companies who do endorse silver as
money, and who use it as money.
Therefore, at the present time, I do not own any of the large,
paper
money cash rich silver companies. I only own silver exploration
companies. Exploration companies do not really have a choice to
hold cash as silver, since they hold so little cash. And they
could not hedge production and lock in low prices for silver even if
they wanted to, because they are not yet producers.
I'm not even asking that silver miners spend money on ads to promote
using silver as money (I'll do that myself). I'm merely asking
that they, themselves, walk the walk, and actually use their own
product, and use silver as money.
Next week, I will be spending plenty
of money on some major internet ad campaigns to help promote the
silver story. Hopefully, ads will run at cnn, forbes, and
perhaps nasdaq soon. These are not the type of ads that would be
"indicative of a top". If the ads run, it will be because they
"snuck through" any systematic efforts to keep the masses in the dark
about silver. I'm saying this because I know that very long term
silver investors tend to think that any mainstream ad should somehow
mean it's a top. I do not believe that will be the case
here. Thank you for all of your support.
------------------------
Regarding the arrogance of wealthy
investors. Those who are short silver right now are mostly the
"commercial" dealers, most likely bullion banks. They have more
dollars than almost anyone else in the world.
I do not think they are yet engaging in any panic short covering
yet. Maybe one of the largest dealers has been exiting, and
that's about it. The reason I believe there is not yet a panic to
buy silver among the short sellers is that physical silver is still not
yet declining from the 52.5 million oz. in the registered category at
the COMEX. That 52.5 million ounces has remained remarkably
constant for months now. This means they are somehow able to
maintain that silver even as physical demand and investor demand is
increasing, which is pushing up prices from the $5/oz. level.
They may feel that silver is their "ammunition" to be used in case they
need to push silver prices down. That pile of silver, the 52.5
million oz. represents about 10% of their paper contracts. As
their experience as bankers shows them, less than 1% of depositors ever
demand their money, and less than 1% of futures contract holders ever
demand delivery. Therefore, they may still feel safe. Also,
they likely are on the receiving end of physical silver that was locked
in at much lower prices. Therefore, they are making money on the
difference in the physical market. The ones who are hurting badly
are the miners, like Penoles, who locked in low prices by hedging.
------------------------
Recently, I have been raising money
for two private placements that I just bought into. I also sold a
bunch of stocks in my portfolio, in order to buy into these two private
placements. To see which stocks these were, you have to sign up
for a "look at my portfolio", which is produced monthly, and the next
look will be released on, or just after April 1.
As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said---
"It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw
have been based on silver mines..."
--quote found by Charles Savoie
---------------------------- For news on the New Hampshire Sound Money Bill, that proposes to
use U.S. Treasury minted Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles as money see: http://www.nh-inews.org/ http://veritasradio.com/
Current status of the NH bill:
The bill will live until the November elections. It'll have a
different #,
but we now have 6 months or so to get EVERYONE we need on board.
Thanks to you for your efforts. Now, the fund raising part begins
so we can take it to the other states ! More on that later.
For now - V I C T O R Y is in sight !
----------------------------
The following dealers generally have, or regularly keep, over 100,000 oz.
silver bullion in inventory: (These are generally not places to call for small retail orders. For smaller
orders, call Greg Westgaard, 1-800-328-1860 Ext. 8889, and tell him
Jason sent you.)
American
Coin and Vault
5523 North Wall Street
Spokane, WA 99205
(509) 326-7512
California Numismatics (will accept small retail orders) http://www.golddealer.com/
Richard Schwary
1-800-225-7531
Engles Coin Shop Minimum order: 100 oz. gold
or 5000. oz. silver.
(317) 875 0614
3520 Founders Lane,
Indianapolis, IN 46268
Miles Franklin Ltd. http://www.milesfranklin.com
St. Louis Park, Minn.
Bob Sichel 1-800-814-3224
They believe their exclusive wholesaler is one of the top 5-6 wholesalers
in size in N. America.
If there are any silver bullion dealers who have at least $500,000
worth of silver bullion in inventory on hand, please contact me
jasonhommel@yahoo.com
, and I will give you a FREE AD, like the ones above, in each week's
silver stock report.
----------------------------
The easiest way to buy Comex Silver is through a precious metals
brokerage firm such as HSBC bank, or
http://www.fidelitrade.com/
that charges around 1% commission, plus delivery fees of about 2-3%
depending on how far to ship. Or you could open a commodities trading
account with any of the major brokerage houses who are most likely the
bullion banks, and take delivery of your contract. There are several
problems with this method. First, is the most obvious. These
are the paper contracts that are controlling and suppressing the price,
that I believe must one day default. Second, the bullion banks, since
they are the ones who are likely short silver, will try their hardest to
talk you out of placing an order. I have actually had several
bullion banks turn me down, and not open a commodities trading account for
me when they heard I was going to take delivery of several futures contracts!
Their hypocritical excuses are amazing! They will say on one
hand that their comissions are too low, and thus, it's not worth their time
to open the account for you. And then, they will turn around and also
say that you don't want to order silver bullion because the commissions will
kill you! Unbelievable hypocrites those shorts! They will also
try to scare you with "assay fees" that will be assessed if you try to return
1000 oz. bars to the exchange! But they won't tell you what those fees
may cost! I've heard the assay fee is FREE if you use Brinks in LA!
My 2004-2009 price predictions for gold and silver:
2004: $595/oz. gold, 50:1 ratio = $12/oz. silver
2005: $1011/oz. gold, 30:1 ratio = $34/oz. silver
2006: $1719/oz. gold, 10:1 ratio = $172/oz. silver
2007: $2923/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $ 585/oz. silver
2008: $4,969/oz. gold, 1:1 ratio = $4969/oz. silver
2009: $8448/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $1698/oz. silver
2010+: infinity dollars/oz. gold, infinity dollars/oz. silver.
I calculate the gold price rise by guessing that by 2009, M3 will have
a "gold-value" like it did in 1980, which is to say, M3 was worth 2 Billion
oz. of gold or less. It also assumes M3 will about triple in that
time. These figures are conservative, because I see no reason that
M3 should be valued more than the gold the U.S. actually holds, which is
a mere 261 million oz., not billion. Today, the M3 value is $8870
billion / $425/oz. = 19 billion oz. of gold M3 could buy in theory.
The silver:gold ratio is also a very, very vague guess, reflective of monetary
demand chasing silver, which is more scarce than gold in above ground, refined
form. I have no idea when the ratio of 15:1 will be exceeded, I'm just totally
guessing. I suppose it could happen this year or next month for all
I know. Of course my real price targets are infinity dollars per oz.
for both gold and silver when all is said and done, I just don't know how
long that will take, nor what year it will be. But my point in producing
the price predictions is to show my bullishness for silver and gold.
----------------------------
Let me say how important it is for silver stock investors to
own physical silver. There is $
334 million dollars worth of silver in the registered category
available for delivery at the COMEX. The 59 silver stocks on my list,
for which I have information available to calculate market caps, add up
to $7090 million as of Dec. 5th, 2003.
If silver stock investors move 5% of their silver stock holding
to physical silver in the next few weeks, that would be $350 million
dollars worth of physical silver, and thus, the silver price would probably
hit $10-20/oz. within a few days. And if silver stock investors
try to move 20% into physical silver, the silver demand will end the COMEX
manipulation tomorrow. We don't need anyone other than ourselves
to make "the big breakout" happen at this point.
----------------------------
I wrote an article predicting that Silver Companies will buy silver,
and urging Silver Companies to buy silver with their cash, to use silver
as money, and sell silver as needed for expenses. See
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1069879327.php
That article is now having an effect! It is being discussed by
several large "cash rich" silver companies, who are seriously considering
the idea of holding their cash in the form of silver.
Note, there is virtually no monetary demand. Note, the 2002 mine production
(585 mil oz.) is greatly exceeded by industrial, photo, and jewelry demand.
(838 mil oz.). Note the chart on page five, "Supply from above-ground
stocks".
The difference between mine supply and industrial demand was met by
a combination of three factors: 1. Government selling, 2. Private
selling, 3. Recycling
U.S. government selling is ending, as their stocks have run out, or
will run out. This factor will reverse, because the U.S. government
will need silver to continue their coin program, and/or need silver when
they wake up and decide they need to replenish their strategic stockpile for
domestic security. Silver is a war material. China's selling
of silver will also likely turn into buying, as China will need silver for
continued industrial development, or when they also lose faith in the U.S.
dollar.
Private selling has been rapidly shrinking and is now almost ended,
and should turn into buying, and become monetary demand. Monetary
demand is everything in the silver supply / demand situation. It's
not now. Now, it's nothing. But it will become something incredible,
because the dollar is dying.
----------------------------
The following is a "must read": Ted Butler's best ever explanation
of how silver is manipulated lower than it should be. http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-04-03.html
Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand
from consumers. However, Ted Butler does not point out, and neglects
to mention, that a perpetually low price also creates lack of demand from
investors who are "trend investors".
I think most silver experts over-analyze all the supply and demand factors
of the silver market. No factor is more important than monetary demand.
The force of photographic demand is like a light breeze compared to the
hurricane or tornado of monetary demand. Monetary demand is everything.
----------------------------
Consider the gold market for a moment:
Even short selling at the COMEX is nothing compared to monetary demand.
The short position most certainly helps to depress the price of gold as
the short position is growing larger. However, it adds fuel to the
fire if there is short covering, and thus, it can boost the gold price later.
But the commercial short position on the COMEX is next to nothing compared
to the non-reported "over the counter" trading that is done that does not
appear on the COMEX.
(Numbers in metric tonnes, 32,152 oz. per tonne.)
870 tonnes -- the paper position at the COMEX, 280,000 contracts for
100 oz. each.
5,000 tonnes -- the official number admitted that the central banks
have sold.
15,000 tonnes -- the number GATA research shows that central banks have
sold / or leased.
30,000 tonnes -- the number of official central bank gold, minus either
the 5000 or 15,000 tonnes.
145,000 tonnes -- all the gold mined in the history of the world.
2,600 tonnes -- annual mine supply
4,000 tonnes -- annual demand
And all of that is nothing compared to the amount of dollars out there
that exist that could buy gold. $20 trillion bonds, $9 trillion M3 = $29
Trillion. A mere 1% is $290 Billion, which, at
$500 /oz. is a massive demand of
18,039 tonnes.
Do you understand what that means? That means that far,
far less than 1% of dollars, in either bonds or M3 can buy gold, because
there simply is not that much gold available.
Long before 1% of U.S. paper dollars tries to buy gold, gold
will be going up well over $1000/oz., and silver will be headed up over $50/oz.
----------------------------
To scare away investors--that is the entire reason gold and silver
are manipulated in the first place. Only the trend investors can be
deceived. The problem is that nearly everyone is a trend investor.
So few investors understand value. If people knew the facts and used
their brains, the available above-ground refined silver would be gone by
tomorrow, and the price would be well over $20-50/oz. But don't trust
me, follow the urls and check the numbers:
$33,000,000,000,000: World bond market
yr end, '01: http://tinyurl.com/vr7u
$20,200,000,000,000: U.S. bond market, yr end, '02:
http://tinyurl.com/vr7g
$11,700,000,000,000: U.S. stock market, yr end, '02:
http://tinyurl.com/vr7g
$11,038,000,000,000: U.S. annual GDP, 3rd q.'03 est.
http://tinyurl.com/vr9y
$8,879,000,000,000: M3 (money in the banks) Nov. '03
http://tinyurl.com/vra0
$7,001,312,247,818: US debt,
12-31-'03 http://tinyurl.com/bbp
$2,360,000,000,000: U.S. annual budget 2004
$1,860,000,000,000: World gold, 145,000 T @ $400/oz.
http://tinyurl.com/vrcc
$554,995,097,146: U.S. budget deficit, ending
fiscal year, 09/30/'03 http://tinyurl.com/bbp
$272,000,000,000: Market Cap of Microsoft (03-2004)
http://tinyurl.com/vrcn
$180,000,000,000: debt of Ford Motor Co. (03-2004)
http://tinyurl.com/vrd1
$104,400,000,000: US gold, 261 mil oz., @ $400/oz.
http://tinyurl.com/vsr9
$100,000,000,000: all the world's gold stocks (estimated?)
$7,090,000,000: all the world's
silver stocks (59 of them on this list, as of Dec. 5th, 2003) $395,000,000: 52.5 mil oz.
of registered COMEX silver @ $7.53
/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcw
So, what do all those stastistics mean?
For a while I was using M3 and dividing that by the US gold (261 million
ounces), which implies the us dollar is 84 times more valuable than it
should be, and that gold should hit $34,000/oz. after the fraud is destroyed.
Today, I realize I need to add in the Bond market, because bonds are an
asset class designed to siphon away and replace real money, which is to
say, gold. This gives a price of about $111,111/oz. for gold.
At $ 430/oz, this implies that
US bonds and paper currency are 258 times more overvalued than gold.
Gold is overvalued relative to silver, because at current prices, it
takes 59
ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold. Historically, this ratio
was 15 or 16. Given the silver shortage, this ratio will hit 10:1
or 5:1, or even 1:1. Thus, gold is perhaps 66 times more overvalued
than silver.
Silver is overvalued relative to certain select silver stocks, perhaps
by a factor of 3 or 10 or 20 to one.
Thus, if you multiply all those numbers, 258 x 59 x 10, You will
see that bonds and currency are overvalued relative to select silver stocks
by a factor of 152,000 to one. In other words, if silver stocks reach their
true value, and paper currency disappears as it always does, then you might
expect certain silver stocks to go up in relative value by a factor of 152,000 times more than they are worth today. By that time, you should
definitely sell the silver stocks, and buy gold.
Can silver stocks really appreciate so much? Is there historical evidence
for such a crazy thing? Yes.
See http://www.sterlingmining.com/old.html
Excerpt:
"CDE rose from penny stock status (.02 in 1967) to an NYSE-listed, $60
per share stock in 1980. In fact, the average share on the Spokane Stock
Exchange rose in value nearly 16000% (yes, sixteen THOUSAND percent), as America
could not get enough of silver and silver stocks."
CDE rose by a factor of 3000, or 300,000%, and by 1980, the metals boom
was stopped short, and paper money's death was postponed. If paper
money dies a death that lasts a generation world-wide, then even greater gains
should have been expected.
For this reason, a wise silver stock investor should NEVER sell silver
stocks for paper cash. A wise silver stock investor who looks for value
would never sell a fairly valued silver stock for an overvalued silver stock
that traded for hundreds of thousands of times more value than it should
be. Likewise, there is no excuse for a silver stock investor to have
any cash or money market or bonds in his portfolio for any reasonable length
of time, except for when selling one silver stock to raise the cash for another
silver stock, or for when you need to raise the cash to buy silver, or a
private placement in another silver stock.
So, if you want some fairly liquid alternatives to cash, in case you
don't know what other silver stocks to buy at the time, here they are:
1. Buy silver. You can hold silver in an IRA.
2. Buy CEF. Central Fund of Canada, ticker symbol CEF.
It's gold/silver bullion fund. It has 50 oz. of silver for every
1 oz. of gold. The fund is fairly liquid, you can buy it as easily
as any other stock, and is a good cash substitute. Unfortunately,
given the current ratio, about 60% or more of the value is in gold.
3. Buy a fairly large cap silver stock, with fairly large volume,
that is still fairly cheap on the list. SSRI is probably the best candidate.
----------------------------
The sheer stupidity of big money not recognizing the value of the world's
remaining silver is utterly shocking to the rational mind. Clearly,
bond holders are utterly deceived, and totally unaware of the situation.
All my readers should understand and know that bonds were originally invented
to suck the capital and money (gold and silver) away from the people.
Bonds today are a paper promise to repay paper. What a con game!
Are bond holders conservative and safe? No, they are fools!
There is nothing safe about holding a paper promise to receive more paper
when we have been experiencing hyperinflation for the past two and a half
years!
----------------------------
And the fund investors who buy paper silver futures contracts instead
of real silver are a very odd bunch of fools, for they should realize that
nobody can deliver the 800+ million ounces of silver promised in the paper
contracts and options that does not exist. It's like the paper longs
are betting on the bank run happening, but they all are making sure they
get at the end of the long line. Instead, they could go front and
center, where there is an open window available where you can go and get
physical silver, and nobody is there. Idiots! If you know a
bank run is going to happen, and you are actually willing to bet on it,
then go and withdraw your money before it is too late! Don't bet on
it happening, which, if it does happen, your contracts will be defaulted
on! Amazingly blind idiots. Wake up!
How bullish am I on silver? Here's an interesting way to put it:
"59 times infinity" dollars per ounce.
I believe the dollar will eventually be destroyed, likely within my
lifetime, hence the "infinity" part. I believe the ratio of silver
to gold may be equal during a spike, when the market realizes that above-ground
refined silver is more rare than gold. Thus, silver may outperform
gold by a factor of 59 times better. Currently, the ratio is 59 ounces
of silver can buy one ounce of gold or 59:1.
I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold
ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1
ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money
collapse.
How we can tell if silver is leading gold, or if gold is leading silver?
IE, which is going up more, faster than the other? The way you can
tell is by looking at the ratio. If the silver:gold ratio is going
up (say, from 60:1 to 80:1), then gold is moving up faster (because it takes
5 more silver oz. to buy an oz. of gold. If the ratio is going down
(from 60:1 to 40:1), then silver is moving up faster. So, keep an eye
on the ratio.
A good website that hosts posting boards for many of the smaller canadian
stocks (that Yahoo! finance does not have boards for) is stockhouse.com
Click on "Bullboards".
----------------------------
This is a list of primary silver stocks.
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because
I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to
me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in
the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important
consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get
(silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost
is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better.
Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below
over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best
of my ability. I may have made mistakes. I probably did. I'm human. I have
collected the information from public sources such as company web sites
and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report
in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information
may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a
company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private
placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted
into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or
split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as
these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending
on drilling results.
This report is not investment advice. This report contains information
that may or may not be up to date, and may be inaccurate. I urge
you to contact the company and do your own research to verify the information
contained in this report.
This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities. I am
not a broker. Only your broker can buy or sell securities for you.
I urge you to consult with your investment advisor to determine whether
these kinds of investments are right for you.
I also caution you to be aware of your investment advisor's advice,
they are sometimes paid to push things like mutual funds, bonds and other
securities that may not be in your best interest to buy. Some investment
houses are short physical metal, and thus, they may attempt to strongly
discourage you from buying precious metal or precious metals investments.
I believe that the propaganda machine in support of frauds such as bonds
and the dollar is so strong, that they may even believe what they say when
they give bad advice to avoid the safety and protection of precious metals.
It is most likely that they simply do not understand the precious metals
market as well as you do.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There
are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty
which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate,
there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally,
every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored,
which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I
have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce
in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver,
or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above,
that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there
have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices
change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total
loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock
companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or
issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company
you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital
for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine.
They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR
silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which then proves
to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as
estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and
environmental risk. They can't franchise the business, are stuck in one
location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage
negotiations, and corporate looting.
Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions.
Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company,
and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person.
So, at the very least, check the company web site, read the annual reports,
check my numbers, check my math, and email the company. That's what they
are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity
of the company. Don't trust everything you read over the internet. I am
a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I'm not a broker, nor an
investment advisor. I'm just a private investor trying to make sense of
this crazy world, and sharing my information and thoughts on silver companies.
Surely, there are scammers in the mining industry in the past, and there
will be scammers in the future. Remember the fraud of Bre-X.
The new 43-101 compliance laws put in place after Bre-X will not prevent
a "certified" geologist from lying if he feels lying will create a better
payoff. The Bible warns, "trust no man", yet at the same time advises
us to "cast our bread upon the waters", and to not issue "false allegations"
against others. Physical gold and silver provide the "payment in full"
as long as the coins or bars themselves are genuine and not fake.
This report may be copied, and transmitted by other people, and may
become outdated by the time it reaches you.
I can't tell you how you should invest your money, of course. The reason
is that I don't know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor
do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, so I don't know
how long you can wait to see results, nor do I know how much liquidity
you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is
very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.
That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me,
so far. And so, here is how I have valued the following silver companies
to make my own investment decisions.
----------------------------
(Market cap is always converted to US dollars and denominated in US
dollars because I divide by ounces of silver, which are also denominated
in dollars)
The Market Cap is the usual tool to
value a company. It is what the company "costs to buy" if you
could buy the entire company, all the shares, at the latest share
price. It is calculated by multiplying the share price, by the
total number of shares that the company has issued. In reality,
you could almost never buy an entire company at the price of the Market
Cap, but only a small portion. Usually, even small buying
pressure, such as trying to buy 1% of a company, can push up the price
of a stock by up to 10-50% higher. In my reports, I list Market
Cap in terms of millions of dollars as "$75 mil MC".
To calculate the Market Cap, I try to get and use the number of "fully
diluted shares". A company creates shares when they sell them to
investors in what are
called "private placements", or "initial public offerings" (IPO).
A
private placement is done usually before there is ever an IPO.
These
usually consist of shares and warrants, sold for cash that the company
will need to grow and expand.
The "outstanding shares" is the number of shares that exist out there
if you count them all, and it does not count the warrants, which are
like options. The investor can "exercise the warrants" which is a
right, but not an obligation, to buy more shares from the company at
the set price of the warrant.
If the company does well, and the stock price moves up, all the
warrants will be, or should be, exercised and converted into shares, especially if they become
"in the money", and the warrants are significantly cheaper than the
stock price.
Now, "fully diluted shares" is the total number of shares, plus the
warrants, counting warrants as if they were all exercised and became fully
trading shares. I think "fully diluted shares" is a better number to
use to calculate market cap than by using "outstanding shares" as most
do.
Finally, I go beyond valuing a company
based on Market Cap alone; instead, I value a company by dividing the
Market Cap by the assets of the company, which are usually the silver
reserves in the ground. Thus, I can get a sense of what you are
getting for what you are paying. And then, I denominate the
whole thing in terms of silver, and not dollars, to get a more constant
measure.
----------------------------
(These first three companies, BHP, GMBXF.PK, and BVN produce a
lot of silver, but are way to expensive to buy for the silver exposure for
your portfolio.)
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) http://www.bhpbilliton.com/
--'produces 40 mil oz. silver annually from one mine'
Additional comments: unfortunately, BHP has a
53 Billion market cap, so we can't buy BHP for the silver exposure.
IE, $53 Billion / oh, say, 1000 million?????= $53/oz.
Dear BHP: By all means, keep mining the silver if you want the
silver exposure, and want to be in the silver business. But don't
sell the silver. Keep it. Let the profits of your entire company
accrue as an increasing physical supply of physical silver. In fact,
do as Buffett did, and buy more silver if you can. It would be infinitely
easier for you to buy silver from yourself than it would be to buy 40 million
ounces of silver from the COMEX, which, today, might be impossible.
Grupo Mexico SA de CV (GMBXF.PK) http://www.gmexico.com/indexi.html
651,646,640 shares (2002 annual report)
@ $4.00/share
$2606 mil MC
"Grupo Mexico ranks as the world's third largest copper producer
(copper at $1.24), fourth largest producer of silver and fifth largest
producer
of zinc."
They produced 28.2 million oz. of silver, worth $129 million, in 2002.
(P. 5, annual report.)
Total value of produced metals: $2527 milllion. (but the company lost
money in 2002). They mainly produce copper, 900,000 tons worth $1.5
billion in 2002. Thus, silver, at 2002 prices, is only 5% of their
production value. Silver is a by-product for them, not a main product.
I don't have silver reserve figures, nor do I see any need to find them
or add them, since they are not a primary silver producer, and I don't think
anybody would be buying them for the "silver exposure".
If we assume 280 mil oz. of silver (ten years reserve for production),
then we still don't have anything exciting for the silver alone.
$2085 mil MC / 280 = $7.45/oz. cost.
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN)
Minas Buenaventura
NYSE:BVN
- Peru´s largest publicly traded precious metals company
--produces over 10Moz of silver per year
--looks way too expensive for the silver alone: 3.6 Billion market cap.
-------------- -------------- --------------
HL (HECLA MINING CO) http://hecla-mining.com/ hmc-info@hecla-mining.com
(208) 769-4100
115 mil shares
@ $8.00/share
$924 million Market Cap (MC)
near zero debt, cash: $123 mil (Feb., 2004)
(est. 2003 production 9 mil oz. silver)
(the La Camorra gold mine, 412,000 oz gold.) ... (x 350/5 = 28 mil silver
equivalent oz.)
San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probably reserves) 8.7 mil
(produced 3 mil)
the Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probably reserves) 31 mil
(produced 3 mil) Hecla owns just under
30% of it!
the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probably reserves) 14 mil. (produced
2 mil)
Total silver = 32 million oz.
Plus 412,000 oz. gold x 10 = 4.1 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv. reserves = 36 mil oz.
(Since my method values silver in the ground as a key asset, I should
also value the cash as a "silver asset" which will be "marked to market"
if silver goes up, and cash goes down. If HL is smart, they should
be able to turn the cash into increased "silver exposure" either through
buying silver properties, silver equities, or physical silver.)
($123 million cash / $7.53/oz
= 16 mil "silver equiv" oz.) 16 + 36 = 52 mil oz.
$924 mil MC / 52 mil "oz." = $17.77/oz.
You get "approx" .42 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of
stock.
Additional comments: HL has more oz. than listed in the "proven & probable" category
used in this calculation. Vein mining makes reserve calculations difficult,
and HL has rarely had more than about a 3-4 year picture of reserves ahead
of them in 100 years of production.
I have been counting their papar cash as if it could be silver, but
it still does not help boost their valuation much. They are still
the most expensive company on the list in terms of cost per oz. of silver in the ground. But if HL bought 18 mil oz.
of physical silver, they might end the silver manipulation, and significantly
boost their own profitability.
Earth to Hecla: Is silver useful as money, or not? It's a simple question, and your actions speak volumes.
Some have noted that HL stock is now
lagging the silver price. Sometimes, they use this as an
indicator that the silver price might not continue upwards. I
think that's hogwash. I think HL stock is lagging because it is
the most expensive silver stock on my list that I know of, the most
expensive by far, whether you value by PE ratio, or by resources in the
ground. Therefore, the lagging share price for HL may reflect not
an anticipation that silver is headed down, but rather, the realization
among market participants that HL is overvalued relative to all other
silver stocks. After all, that's what that means when HL was
downgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Underperform, which happened
on Jan 6th by CIBC, which was about the peak on the HL price chart.
Under-priced silver stocks continue to outperform in a shocking way, as share prices of silver juniors skyrocket.
I believe silver bullion will continue
to skyrocket, and I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform HL
stock at these prices. ABX (Barrick) http://www.barrick.com/
535 million shares
@ $22.23/share
$11,893 million Market Cap
5.5 million oz. / year gold production.
--production hedged out for 3 years, or about 18 million oz. (most notorious hedger of the industry, the "leader")
--price of hedges locked in near the
market lows, perhaps $340/oz. on average, nobody knows for sure,
because Barrick will not say
--reportedly, Barrick is trying to "unhedge".
--reportedly, they plan to deliver 1/3 of production to hedges, which means they will be hedge free in about 10 years.
--the size of the hedge, 18 mil oz.
gold, at $400/oz., would be valued at $7.2 billion dollars. At
$500/oz, it's $9 billion.
--but they claim to be "debt free", if
you ignore the gold they owe for delivery, at locked in, low prices.
(only true if gold is not money)
--cash "rich" of about $1 billion dollars.
Silver Reserves reported to be 850 million ounces!
Gold Reserves reported to be 86 million oz. (x 10 = 860 mil oz. + 850 silver = 1710 mil oz. "silver equiv."
$11,893 million Market Cap / 1710 mil oz. = $6.95/oz. silver
You get "approx" 1.08 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of
stock.
Additional comments: Over the years,
Barrick has hedged their production, which many claim has helped to
depress the price of gold and silver, by artificially adding to
supply. (Barrick's promises becoming the extra supply.) The declining
price of the precious metals has put other miners out of business,
which Barrick has acquired at low prices. If Barrick goes bankrupt due
to their hedges, and rising gold and silver prices, then perhaps
Barrick's many properties will, once again, be sold at distressed
prices.
Barrick boasts a "cash cost" of $189/oz., for gold for 2003, yet their cash has dropped from $2 billion down to $1
billion. It
could be due to the hedging, locking in precious metals prices at low
prices, and/or hedge covering that explains the monetary loss in the
light of their low cash costs.
I believe silver bullion will continue
to skyrocket, and I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform ABX
stock at these prices. CDE
(COEUR D'ALENE) http://www.coeur.com coeurir@coeur.com (208) 769-8155 or (800) 624-2824
213 mil shares (Issued 32 mil new shares late Oct. 2003)
@ $6.82/share
$1454 mil MC
cash $38 mil (I think this is an outdated cash figure)
San Bartolome (Bolivia) reserves 146 mil silver
Silver Valley Silver reserves 32 mil silver
Rochester reserves 43 mil silver
Cerro Bayo reserves 3.7 mil silver
Total: 224.7 mil silver
(to Produce 14.6 mil oz. silver in 2003)
$1454 mil MC / 225 mil oz = $6.46/oz.
You get "approx" 1.2 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
The first week of January, CDE announced a deal for $160 million in
convertable bonds!
Beware of debt!
CDE continued to lose money
in third quarter 2003, a loss of 10 cents/share, and they realized
low prices for silver sales, $4.77. I believe they have hedged their
gold production at low prices.
CDE looks like they owe both gold and dollars. A double debt warning for CDE investors!
Again, their listing of ounces is in the "reserves" category (more certain)
not the "resources" category, which is less certain. They may have
"resources" but like HL and Industrias Penoles, they give no estimates.
I believe silver bullion will continue
to skyrocket, and I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform CDE
stock at these prices.
IPOAF.PK
(INDUSTL PENOLES) http://www.penoles.com.mx
397.5 mil shares outstanding (2002 annual, unchanged since 2001)
@ $4.55/share
$1,808 mil MC
419 proven and probable reserves of silver (from 2002 annual report
on website)
$1,808 mil MC / 419 oz. silver = $4.32/oz.
You get "approx" 1.75 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Industrias Penoles is the world's top producer
of refined silver. They actually derrive more revenue from silver
than any other source. But they lost money in 2002.
The word late Feb. is that Penoles has
hedged several year's worth of silver, that is, they have locked in
contracts at set prices. Set when prices were lower. How
much lower, and at what price, is anyone's guess. As reported at
lemetropolecafe.com, "We know the market is so tight even the world’s largest silver producer,
Mexico’s Penolas, wasn’t thrilled about supplying 1 million ounces for a special
project with ECU Silver, led by their extremely able CEO Michel Roy."
78.5 million oz. silver refined by the metals division in 2002, and
1 mil oz. gold.
They probably refine almost all the silver that comes out of Mexico.
They probably produce about 34 mil oz. of silver from their mines annually,
and they have expansion plans.
I've heard this stock is tightly held, most is family owned.
Their oz. numbers are "proven & probable reserves", which is much
more certain than most of the others which are mostly "inferred and indicated
resources." They undoubtedly have "inferred and indicated resources"
in addition to the "proven & probable reserves," I just could not find
any info on that at the website or in the annual report.
Given the report that Penoles has hedged silver for two years, I believe silver bullion will continue
to skyrocket, and I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform IPOAF.PK
stock at these prices.
SIL (APEX SILVER) http://www.apexsilver.com/ information@apexsilver.com
(303) 839-5060
45,023,760 ordinary shares outstanding.
(Jan 30th press release)
@ $22.36/share
$1006 mil MC
cash on hand: $350 million after
Jan 30th share offering, and March 16th convertable debenture.
San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver
(forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435
million)
(Produced zero silver in 2002)
7.8 billion pounds of zinc, and 2.9 billion pounds of lead
$1006 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $2.22/oz.
You get "approx" 3.40 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: March
16th, Apex raises $144 million in a convertable debenture deal to help
finance the development of San Cristobal. They now have 350/435,
or 80.4% of the capital costs needed for construction. Raising
the last bit should now be very easy to do. If, while raising
money, they held their cash in the form of silver bullion, they would
probably not need to raise any more cash at this point, since silver
has moved up over 50%.
Apex
is now the most cash rich silver stock on the list. About $350
million! Amazing. Their plan, as they have stated all
along, is to wait until higher silver and zinc prices to develop their
deposit. I wonder if they will be smart, and hold their "cash" in
the form of silver bullion while they wait for silver bullion to go up
in price? Seems so basic even a child could understand it.
One key problem standing in the wayis that there are position limits on paper longs, and
thus, APEX could not probably not buy that much silver bullion even if they wanted
to. Ironic, isn't it? It is the most natural and sensical
thing for Apex to buy silver while they wait for higher silver prices, and doing so would push
up the price, but they likely will not act, and almost cannot act due
to the problem of scales of size. This, to me, is so bizzare, I
cannnot fathom it. I think I understand a lot, but this.... it is
simply mind boggling. It's the result of a system so out of
balance, it's insane, and the rational mind has no answer for the
bizzare things we see today.
Look, COMEX is the last place on earth to buy silver now, in any really
big size. Reports are coming in from all over that there is no
bullion in significant size for sale available anywhere.
My advice to Apex would be to buy
every bit of silver they can get. Even hold out a sign, put up a
website, hire people to take the orders, and start buying silver, in
all forms, at 10% and even 15% above the spot price. Just make
yourself become the "market maker" and start buying silver from all
over like a sponge soaking up water. Let the silver find
you! In the long run, a 10-15% commission is nothing when the
trade is this good. There may be position limits at the COMEX,
but it's not illegal to offer to pay what you are willing to pay to the
free market. Forget the COMEX, and make your own market!
Apex silver primarily has institutional
investors.
Apex has a lot of zinc. That's an added bonus that is not factored in
to my method of valuation. Zinc prices have been heading up soon, so that's another bonus. Plenty of zinc is especially
good if zinc is moving up in price. Zinc is now up to $.51/lb., from a low of about $.35/lb. For zinc prices, see http://www.metalprices.com
And, they are not mining now,
but are waiting for higher silver prices. That's also a plus. The management
also seems to understand that silver will move upwards a lot. Another plus.
Finally, George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, just under 10%
I read recently. That's another plus, in general, for the silver market
if Billionaires are paying attention to it. There are several other
zinc / silver plays on this list that investors might also consider: CZN.TO,
EXR.V, MMGG.OB (I own MMGG.OB, but not SIL.)
I do not have an idea on whether or
not SIL will out perform silver bullion or not. It's hard to say,
because of that huge zinc bonus. I expect most of the other
stocks on this list to outperform or significantly outperform silver
bullion in the long run from today's prices.
Clifton
has a complex JV agreement with Dumont Nickel. In sum, here is what
Keith Moeller VP, Clifton Mining Company wrote to me: "If Dumont produces
a positive feasibility study on an individual property piece, then they
gain a 50% interest in that piece alone, not in the rest of the property.
If they spend more than 5 million dollars (US) on any one piece and they
produce a positive feasibility study on that piece, then they will gain
a 60% interest in that one piece of property, not in the rest. If they stop
at any time or fail to produce a positive feasibility, then they will gain
no interest in any of our property. Right now we have around 7 different
pieces of the property that have "Stand Alone" mine potential. If
Dumont stakes or purchases any property within five miles of the joint venture
property, then we automatically receive a 50% interest in that property."
My problem is how to quantify that.
First, there is the range of potential silver resources. Second,
there is the range of potential ownership, which is highly variable, and
not subject to the entire property, nor necessarily subject to spending
by Dumont, but subject mostly to Dumont doing
a positive feasibility study on each of many properties
. At the extreme ranges, the values are: 40% to 100% of 105 = 42 - 105 million oz.
40% to 100% of 1000 = 400 - 1000 mil oz. "exploration potential"
$83 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $1.98/oz.
$83 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.08/oz.
You get "approx" 3.80
ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Exploration Potential: 94
Additional comments: Note the "exploration potential" is
very large.
Clifton has 25% ownership of a biotech firm that makes a colloidal
silver. The biotech firm has a patent on a "super" colloidal silver solution
made with 10,000 volts that adds oxygen that gives it more powerful antibacterial
properties, and is safer since it uses less silver, which would prevent
"blue skin" argyria. Normal colloidal silver that you can make at
home with 30 volts works to kill bacteria by disrupting the oxygen metabolism
of the cell wall, killing bacteria with oxygen. The market for safe
antibiotics is in the multi Billions of dollars.
ECU.V ECUXF.PK (ECU SILVER MINI) http://www.ecu.qc.ca/indexen.html ecu@ecu.qc.ca
(819) 797-1210
fully diluted shares = 103.3 million (6 January 2003)
@ $.59/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.44
$45.7 mil MC http://www.ecu.qc.ca/reservesen.html
See the url above for the numbers from the company's website, which
are:
Proven & Probable & Possible: 7.6 mil oz silver, 93,000 gold.
= 8.5 million "silver equiv" using my method of counting gold as 10:1
"Potential" total: 21.2 mil oz silver, 221,000 oz. gold.
According to my valuation method, that's 2.2 mil oz. of "silver equiv"
for the gold, plus the 21.2 mil oz. silver, for a total of 23.4 mil oz.
Exploration potential:
From http://www.ecu.qc.ca/english/pdf/Annual_rep.pdf
page 6 (or 8), the company says:
"Exploration will mainly be targeted to verify the silver-bearing
potential of certain properties, in line with the objective of
increasing our reserves from 37 million to 100 million
silver-equivalent ounces." (note, the 100 mil oz. "silver equiv"
spoken of by the company undoubtedly counts gold as silver at the
normal ratio, not my 10:1 ratio. Therefore, my 23.4 mil oz.
re-calculation is 63% of their 37 mil oz. number, and so, likewise will
I count 63% of their 100 mil oz. target)
ECU.V is also exploring other gold properties.
$45.7 mil MC / 23.4 mil oz. silver equiv. = $1.95/oz.
$45.7 mil MC / 63 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.60/oz.
You get "approx" 3.86 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration potential = 12.55
Additional comments: Although
ECU stopped trading this week, it's most likely nothing to worry
about. Simple reporting requirements or concerns that will
probably be resolved soon.
MFN MFL.TO (MINEFINDERS) http://www.minefinders.com/
Shares Fully Diluted 34.1 mil (Late 2003?)
@ $9.95/share
$339 mil MC
Cash on hand, Fully Diluted: C$34 million
"over 3.5 mil ounces of gold resource and 160 mil ounces of silver"
--Dec. '03
silver conversion = 3.5 x 10 = 35 mil + 160 mil oz. silver = 195 mil
oz. silver
At 70:1 ratio, 3.5 x 70 = 245 "silver equiv" of gold, and 160 mil of
silver = 405.
245/405 = 61% of the mineral value is in the gold, 39% silver.
At 10:1 ratio, 35/195 = 18% of the mineral value is in the gold, 82%
silver.
"In addition to the resources already drilled, Minefinders controls
a strong portfolio of
properties
in Nevada, Arizona, and Mexico which have the potential to host new
multi-million ounce discoveries over the next few years."
$339 mil MC / 195 mil oz. = $1.74/oz.
You get "approx" 4.33 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional Comments: At 70:1 silver to gold ratio, over half
of MFN is in gold, so consider this a significant gold bonus. MFN also now
lists their resource figures on their website's main page. I'm sure
investors appreciate this. I do.
Additional comments: A one property company. The Carmen
gold-silver deposit on their Monterde property in the Sierra Madre belt
of Chihuahua State, Mexico. Significant
exploration potential.
It was reported by a press release that 16%-17% of KBR.V is owned by silver bull Jim Puplava of http://www.financialsense.com, which I think is a rather solid endorsement of the company.
This $35 million acquisition is a
great deal for PAAS, and a minor help for PAAS shareholders.
According to the press release above, the silver mine produced 3.5
million ounces of silver a year, at a cash cost of $3/oz., which is
great! At $6.50/oz, that's $3.5 x 3.5 mil oz. = $12.25 million
per year profit after cash costs! That gives the acquisition a
P/E ratio for the mine's acquisiton cost of under 3! What a
deal!
Unfortunately, PAAS shareholders are
paying way above that when they buy the stock today. After this
acquisition, PAAS should have a "2004 silver production forecast
to 13 million
ounces from 10.1 million ounces and will reduce forecast cash costs to
below $
3.50/oz, bringing anticipated total costs to less than $4/oz for the
year." Now, at $6.50/oz, that's $2.5 x 13 mil oz. = $32.5 million
per year profit, after cash costs. That gives a P/E ratio for
PAAS of about $1000 / $32 = 31. Therefore, considering the two
P/E ratios, 31 compared to under 3, PAAS stock is over ten times
overvalued compared to other silver mining opportunities that exist in
the market, such as the property they just purchased.
I believe PAAS is one of two silver companies on
the list today that is significantly in debt (the other is now CDE).
What if your silver company decides to lock in silver prices
at $8, and hedge years of production to "protect the shareholders and provide
exposure to the high $8/oz. price," only to watch silver prices head past
$25 and past $50/oz? Your stock could get wiped out in bankruptcy,
and your investment could go to zero value! This is the danger of
stocks! Your investment is subject to the whims of management!
WARNING: PAAS says at
their website that they will hedge
silver, in order to finance mine construction. http://panamericansilver.com/s/CorporateProfile.asp
"Pan American is loath to give away the upside on any of its silver production,
especially at current low metal prices, and will do so only to the minimum
extent required as a condition of prudent mine financing."
My opinion is that it is NEVER prudent to go into debt, or lock in
silver prices to finance a mine. If PAAS cannot raise capital on
the markets by issuing shares, then they should not be financing new mine
construction. If the market will not support new mine construction,
then the market does not need more silver. PAAS and CDE should learn
to trust the free market process, and avoid debt.
GRS GAM.TO (GAMMON LAKE) http://www.gammonlake.com/ gammonl@sprint.ca
(902) 468-0614
Fully Diluted 58.7 mil shares (Nov 30, 2003)
+3.33 mil special warrant financing (Feb 27th, 2004)
Fully Diluted: 62 mil shares (Feb 27th, 2004)
@ $5.37/share
$333 mil MC
Total Ocampo Inferred: 1,124,000 oz. gold, 50,438,000 oz. silver
Silver equiv = 11.24 mil oz. + 50.44 mil oz. = 62 mil oz.
Total Ocampo Measured & Indicated 2,207,800 oz. gold,
108,438,000 oz. silver
Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. + 108 mil oz. = 130 mil oz.
Total Ocampo Measured & Indicated plus Inferred = 182 mil oz.
Gammon owns 26.3% of Mexgold, MGR
Since Mexgold owns 185 mil oz. of "target exploration potential", 26.3% of that is 48.6 mil oz.
182 + 49 = 231 mil oz.
$333 mil MC / 231 mil oz.= $1.44/oz.
You get "approx" 5.22 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
**Note** most of Mexgold's oz. that are added in are an "exploration target" not yet "inferred resources".
Additional comments: Drill results released Jan 7th:
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/040107/gammon_lk_drill_rslts_1.html
At current prices of a 64:1 silver:gold ratio at $425/oz gold and $6.60/oz
silver, the resources are worth $1048 million of silver, and $1411 million
worth of gold. Cash cost is $85/oz. Life of mine is 7 years.
HGM.V HOGOF.PK (HOLMER GOLD) http://www.holmergold.com/
1-877-859-5200 ask for John Robinson, or George White
39.4 mil shares
@ $.425/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $ .32 US 8.9 mil oz. silver resources in cuba, according to final feasibility study. Short mine life. $12.6 / 8.9 mil oz. = $1.42/oz.
You get "approx" 5.30 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: silver in cuba. (final feasibility study completed by Rescan-Hatch) gold in Timmins,
Ontario. Most of the value of Holmer is in the gold property in Timmins.
--final approval by the Cuban Govt. is expected within few
weeks.
--Capital needed for the silver project, approx. $6 million. WTZ WTC.TO (WESTERN SILVER) http://www.westernsilvercorp.com
(formerly western copper) --And copper prices are headed up, too, (copper at $1.30) now. info@westernsilvercorp.com
Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
40.1 mil fully diluted (After Dec. 16th 2003 financing)
@ $7.92/share
$318 mil MC
(not actively mining)
$14 million Cdn in cash in the till (2 mil + 12 mil financing) no debt
From the "SNC Lavalin Resource Calculation" March, 2003.
Indicated 158.8 mil oz. silver
Inferred 54.6 mil oz. silver
Total 213.4 oz. silver.
Total 1.94 oz. gold x 10 (at 10:1) = 19.4 silver equiv.
The capital cost to get the mine going is estimated to be US $148
million
Penasquito silver/gold. 213 mil oz silver. just over 2
mil oz. gold. from Chile/Colrado zone.
Brechia zone will double the numbers, and infilling inferred to indicated:
probably in Jan will have 500 mil oz. silver, 5 mil oz gold.
Exploration potential: 500 mil oz. silver, 5 mil oz. gold, from
http://www.mips1.net/mgn03.nsf/UNID/SBAY-5SUBN6
Two other zones that could each duplicate the success of each of the
other two. So up to a Billion... oz. of silver as "exploration potential"!
Feasibility: 2006-7 production timeline.
$318 mil MC / 233 oz. = $1.36/oz.
$318 mil MC / 1000 oz. = $.32/oz. --exploration potential
You get "approx" 5.54 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential = 24
Additional comments: Western Silver was formerly Western Copper... Copper now at $1.35/lb!
Note the capital cost to get the mining started: $148 million dollars.
WTZ also has the following other metal resources:
3.73 billion pounds of zinc x .50/lb = $1865 million
673 million pounds of copper x $1.30/lb = $874 million
1.3 billion pounds of lead x .40/lb = $520 million
FSR.TO FSLVF.PK (FIRST SILVER) http://www.firstsilver.com/ info@firstsilver.com
(604) 602-9973 or (888) 377-6676
38.6 mil shares fully diluted (Jan 2004) @ $1.95/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $1.46 US
$56 mil MC
From the Company's main page at their url:
"As at December 31, 2001, First Silver's mineable reserves were 12
million ounces of silver and inferred resources totaled 30 million ounces
of silver. The mine is developing a 1000 plus meter exploration drift to
upgrade currently identified inferred resources to mineable ore reserves
and to discover new reserves."
12 + 30 = 42 mil oz.
$56 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $1.34/oz.
You get "approx" 5.60 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This is a high grade, producing miner. The
high grades, about 300g/ton, are a plus. They are also actively
exploring, another plus.
3rd quarter, 2003, FSR.TO produced 389,154 oz. silver, and 604 oz.
gold. and revenue was $2.09 million for the 3rd quarter. They produced
at a loss, (a penny per share). They are unhedged, and remain committed
to remaining unhedged.
SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STD RSC) http://www.silver-standard.com/ paull@silverstandard.com
(604) 689-3856 or (888) 338-0046
45.4 mil shares (or more), Jan 19th, 2004 (after recent PP) @ $16.40/share
$745 mil MC
debt free, cash: $Cdn 60 mil
not mining or producing
15 silver properties
measured and indicated resources totaling 300.4 million ounces of
silver
plus inferred resources totaling 366 million ounces of silver = 666
mil oz.
2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. silver. (22+666=688 mil
oz.)
$745 mil MC / 688 mil oz. = $1.08/oz.
You get "approx" 6.96 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
SSRI really is the "silver standard". SSRI has the largest
market cap this far down the list, which makes it a more attractive target
for people with larger amounts of money to invest.
SSRI continues to add to reserves, either through exploring, or through
acquisitions. This company seems to really understand the silver story,
and helped to educate me as an investor.
I attended a two hour SSRI presentation after the Gold show in SF in
late November. For the most part, their properties are very well drilled,
and they have a fairly solid idea on how much silver oz. in the ground they
have. They started their plan to acquire silver properties and become
a "silver company" in about 1993, which explains why they have such a large
market cap, and so many good properties with so many ounces of silver.
Some investors like SSRI because of the diversification --SSRI owns
many silver properties. I say you can get a similar kind of diversification
by owning stock in many silver companies.
CZN.TO CZICF.PK (CDN ZINC) http://www.canadianzinc.com/ czn@canadianzinc.com
1-866-688-2001
67.3 mil shares fully diluted as of Dec., 2003 (as stated in the proxy,
p.8)
80.2 fully diluted shares as of Feb
2, 2003 @ $1.24/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.93 US
$75 mil MC
$13.5 million cash, Cdn, no debt.
not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil
worth of mining infrastructure in place!)
~70 mil oz. (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones! This company seems to be
greatly under-reporting their silver reserves. Their 18 year mine plan consists
of zone 3 only, but there are 12 mineralized zones on the property.)
Really, perhaps well over 100 mil oz. silver.
$75 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $1.07/oz.
You get "approx" 7.07 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: The
share price of CZN has really taken a beating on very high volume, over
a million shares a day for a few days recently. On no news.
I
suspect it's because the people who participated in the private
placement at 50 cents Cdn 4 months ago are selling out. I suppose
it makes some sense for a few of them to sell out, because 100% gains
in 3
months is hard for big money to turn down. If you can do that 3
times in one
year, you've done very well. I believe this may be is an
indication that CZN priced the share offering too low at 50 cents,
which was my opinion at the time. Although I could not participate in
the CZN PP, I decided to join the selling, and try to get out of the
way of this stampeed. I may have waited too late to sell. My guess is
that there will be
a
good re-entry point soon, if not already. An indication of a turn
around low price may be when volume drops low, and/or if you find it
very
difficult to buy in size without moving up the price. The recent
high was $2.04/share, Cdn, recent low, about $1.12 Cdn.
The volatility of some of the silver shares has taught me that it may
be best to try and sell some shares at new highs, and buy other silver
shares that have lagged or dropped in price. Long term, I'm bullish on
CZN. The market cap is less than the replacement costs for the
existing infrastructure, which means you are buying in at a good price.
That the price was up 7% on Friday was a bit of a concern to me, as the
bottom may have been reached, although I made more on IMR.V which was
up 17% on Friday. As they say, the bull tries to buck you off, and I
may have been bucked off of CZN. However, there are plenty of silver
stocks in the world, and it's not good to marry a stock or fall in love
with it. Business is business. But I will continue to keep a very
close watch on CZN.
The additional cash from the recent private placements means that CZN
will now be able to drill and explore more of their property. CZN
likely has much more silver in the ground, and has good profit
potential.
I would like the company to privide an estimate of the silver on the
rest of their properties, but their mine plan consisted only of zone 3 at
the moment. The rest must remain "exploration potential" for now.
To get the mine up and running, they might be able to pay back such
debt within 2 years, but I would hope they would avoid debt, and raise the
capital in additional financings.
I note several very, very positive things about this company.
1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major
silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were bankrupted
by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes
and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building
infrastructure to build the mine. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy
hit. The value of those buildings is now $100 million, and the mine only needs
about $20 million (CAN) ($15 mil US) to get the mine up and running. That's
much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations.
2. The 70 million oz. of silver estimate is for zone 3 only. But there
are 12 zones on the property. The zone 3 estimate is for a 10 year mine plan
that involves mining zone 3 at current metals prices.
3. High Grade ores:
12% zinc/ton; = 240 lbs. zinc/ton x 50 cents/lb. = $120/ton for the
zinc.
10.1% lead/ton = 202 lbs. lead/ton x 40 cents/lb. = $80/ton for the
lead.
6 oz. silver/ton x $6.95/oz. = $42/ton for the silver.
0.4% copper/ton = 8 lbs. copper/ton x 1.30 cents/lb. = $10/ton for
the copper.
Total: $249/ton! (Prices have been moving up!) Prices accurate as of Mid Feb., 2004
4. My method of valuation: I'm really counting only the
silver, not the base metals in my "oz in the ground" valuation.
So consider a significant "zinc bonus", and "lead bonus".
5. Zinc and base metals prices are moving up strong. 50
cents/lb. for zinc! Check http://www.metalprices.com/
for updates.
* TM.V TUMIF.OB (TUMI RSCS) (TUY Frankfurt
Exchange) (I own shares) http://www.tumiresources.com nicolaas@attglobal.net
Nick Nicolaas IR (604) 657 4058
23.7 fully diluted shares (Dec. 2003)
@ $1.46/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $1.09 US
$26 mil MC
20 mil oz resource up to 50 million oz. silver potential but needs
to be explored and drilled.
500,000 gold resource x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
Debt free, 2 projects in Mexico.
Raised $2.7 million Nov. 14, 2003
$26 mil MC / 25 mil oz. = $1.04/oz. ***I'm using this number***
$26 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = $.52/oz. (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 7.25 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential: 14.5 (likely plus more after bonanza silver discovery
late November, 2003.)
Additional comments: Tumi soared in late November, after the company announced a bonanza
grade silver discovery after drilling. This should significantly increase
the numbers for their "exploration potential", but no word yet on the increase.
It takes time for the geologists to estimate all of that, but investors
went crazy over it immediately.
Tumi is focused on becoming a "premiere junior silver explorer."
It's good to see the focus is in the right metal. Doing active drilling
to prove up their projects and increase "resources". Nick Nicolaas
really understands the silver story, beliving silver has much greater appreciation
potential than gold.
Look at: Tinka TK.V (tumi's sister company)
A pretty big gold/copper property in Peru (Tumi owns 30% of it)...
That could mean significantly increased assets for Tumi.
I own shares of TM.V.
ORM.V OREXF.PK (OREMEX RES) http://www.oremex.com/s/Home.asp info@oremex.com
Fully Diluted: 24,012,928
@ $1.03/share x .75 US/Cdn = $.77 US
$19 mil MC
Have $5 million cash in the bank as of Dec. 2003.
holds the right to acquire a 100% interest in six mineral properties
in Mexico.
Oremex will focus on the exploration and development of the Tejamen
Silver Property and the
San Lucas Silver Property.
They are hoping to explore for up to 100 mil oz. silver by drilling
over the next year.
--Experienced team of geologists and managment that have put other
properties into production:
Anthony R. Harvey, Chariman, has put 14 properties into production
in his 40 year career.
http://www.oremex.com/s/TejamenSilver.asp?ReportID=68653
for an inferred resource of 8.4 million metric tons at a grade of
89 g/t Silver (2.86 opt) and 0.2g/t Gold (0.006 opt).
2.86 x 8.4 = 24 mil oz. silver at Tejamen (one of six properties)
$19 mil MC / 24 mil oz. = $.77/oz.
$19 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.19/oz. --exploration potential
You get "approx" 9.74 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential: 40
MGR.V MGRSF.PK (MEXGOLD RSCS) http://www.mexgold.com/
18.7 mil shares outstanding
+ 22.5 mil unit financing (x 1.5) (1 unit = 1 share and 1/2 warrant at $2.50 Cdn)
52.5 mil fully diluted
@ $4.02/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $3.02 US
$158 mil MC
inferred resource: 45 mil oz. silver + 1 mil oz gold.
1 mil oz. gold = + 10 mil oz. silver equiv
"The estimate does not address significant additional mineralized
structures known to be present on the property, or the potential for large
strike extensions of known high-grade zones."
February Financing was for the El Cubo Gold-Silver Mine is located in the Guanajuato gold-silver
district in the Republic of Mexico. Historical reports cite district production at 1.2 billion ounces of
silver
and over 4 million ounces of gold. With capital spending and upgrades,
and expect to produce up to 100,000 oz. gold equiv/year at $190/oz. At
$400/oz, that may mean $210/oz. net profit, or $21 million positive
cash flow/year, and yet, the purchase price was $21.5 million. Seems
like they bought a mine, at a price, with a profit potential, of a P/E
ratio of 1.
Target to expand
the El Cubo project resource to over 2 million
ounces of gold equivalent. Given that historic production was 300 oz.
of silver for each 1 oz. of gold, I think it's odd that they speak in
terms of "gold equivalent". Why not emphasize the silver???
Converting their target of gold back to silver, at their ratio of 65:1,
gives 130 mil oz. "silver equivalent".
55 + 130 = 185 "exploration potential"
$158 mil MC / 185 mil oz. = $.85/oz.
You have an "exploration potential target" of 8.81 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: In
spite of the recent very large financing, which nearly trippled the
market cap of the company with a very large acquisition, the stock
price barly moved.
Gammon Lake is a large shareholder, 26.3%.
Mexgold announced bonanza grade discovery on Jan 13th, 11 kilos per ton silver, over 2 meters.
Part of a section of "25.5-metres grading 1.16 grams per tonne gold and 961 grams per tonne silver."
The stock moved up strongly mid week, most likely in response to the news.
SRLM.PK (
STERLING MINING) http://www.sterlingmining.com/
RDemotte@aol.com
Ray DeMotte 208/676-0599
just under 10 mil shares fully diluted (early Jan. 2004)
@ $11.85/share
$118 mil MC
~185 mil oz. reserves + resource, Sunshine alone
Quote from: http://www.sterlingmining.com/jun112003.html
"The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million
ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds
of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as
well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver. "
~100 mil oz. other properties: the 10 sq. miles around the 1/2 sq
mile of the Sunshine (rough guess--needs to be explored) even though--these
extra 100 mil oz. are in the "explorer" category. They need to be
drilled and found, although I've heard of estimates as high as 400 mil oz.
total for SRLM.PK
$118 mil MC / 185 mil oz. = $.64/oz.
$118 mil MC / 500 mil oz. = $.24/oz. (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 11.75 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential is 32. )
Additional comments: I wrote an article on SRLM in late Dec.
See: Sterling
Mining
Ray DeMotte really, really understands the silver story, and has been
aggressively acquiring silver properties. Sterling continues to
consolidate its land position around the Sunshine mine.
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine was one of the
big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling
got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing
to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer.
This company's share price went ballistic as a result. But the company
is still way undervalued. Just do the math, people. I own a substantial
share of SRLM.PK There were a few great articles written lately for SRLM.
See the company web site, above. The best factors, I feel, are as follows:
1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit.
The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital
costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored.
Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine,
right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other
two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They
are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap
prices. See also: December 14, 2003: "In light of the continued low silver
price, Sterling has this year begun holding back into inventory a portion
of this year's silver coins minted."
FAN.TO FRLLF.PK (
FARALLON RSCS) http://www.farallonresources.com/fan/Home.asp
(604) 684-6365 Erick Bertsch
73.8 mil shares fully diluted as of Oct 31, 2003
@ $1.04/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.78 US
$58 mil MC
Exploration and development in Mexico. Run by hdgold.com (Hunter-Dickinson)
On 4 sulphide deposits out of 16, 29 mil ton grading 89 grams silver/t
and 1.57 g gold/t.
Conversion: 89 grams x .0353 oz/gram = 3.14 oz.
RE: those 29 mil tons, they "anticipate increasing resources to 50
mil tonne range..."
3.14 oz. x 29 mil tons = 91 mil oz. silver
1.6 mil oz. gold x 10 = 16 mil oz "silver equiv".
Total: 107 mil oz. silver equiv.
(Exploration potential = x 1.7 = 181)
$58 mil MC / 107 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.54/oz.
$58 mil MC / 181 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.32/oz. --exploration
potential
You get "approx" 14 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration potential = 24
Additional comments:
Nothing done or drilled on the property since 1999. Why not?
Because of low zinc prices: 46% of the price of the metals was in the zinc
before prices crashed... The largest componant today
is gold, which was surprising to Eric, the IR guy I spoke with. About
1/3 is in silver now.
At today's low metals prices:
2% x 2000 lb = 40 lbs zinc x $.42/lb = $16.8 for the zinc
(.37 to .50 lb zinc.)
3.14 oz. x $5.15 = $16 for the silver.
.055421 oz. x $385/oz. = $21 for the gold
(Assuming 100% metals recovery--which is not likely to be the case.
It may range from 60% to a higher percentage, depending on extraction methods
used and the particular mineral targeted, which constantly change with
technology advancements, and price changes in the metals. By the
time a mine like this gets running, perhaps in 5 years or so, things may
change to allow even greater metal recovery.)
Speaking with FAN.TO guys, they think reserves of ore could be 50 mil
tonnes OR MORE, but that they really don't know, and want to issue conservative
estimates. EXR.V EXPTF.PK (
EXPATRIATE RECS) http://www.expatriateresources.com/ info@expatriateresources.com
1-877-682-5474 Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO
85 mil shares fully dulted. (Feb, 2004) (+ 1.95 mil units (1.5 shares/unit) on March, 2004) 88 mil shares fully dulted March, 2004
@ $.485/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.36
$32 mil MC
$1.2 mil CAN capital in the til no debt.
Mostly a base metals company: Zinc. Also has some silver
& gold.
Total metal content of the six projects with resources... "Using
current metal prices, the gross metal value of Expatriate's interest in
the base metals in the properties is approximately US$1.56 billion as compared
to US$540 million for its share of the silver and gold."
Metal: Expatriate share of the project:
Zinc 2.67 billion lbs.
Copper 385 million lbs.
Lead 202 million lbs.
Silver 63.1 million oz.
Gold 426,700 million oz.
Gold x 10 = 4.3 mil "silver equiv".
$32 mil MC / 67.4 oz. silver = $.47
You get "approx" 16 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Significant zinc bonus, about
3 times the silver value. Smelter credits are estimated
at about 60% zinc, 25% silver, 10% gold and copper, and the rest, other
minerals. My method of valuation puts a value on the silver only,
not the rest, so this is a significantly better value than my number shows.
If you call Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO 1-877-682-5474,
ask him to send you an information packet on EXR.V. It contains a
good report on why he is bullish on zinc.
RDV.TO RDFVF.PK (REDCORP VENTURE) http://www.redcorp-ventures.com/ http://www.redfern.bc.ca/index.html
42.7 mil shares fully diluted (Sept 2003) + 10 mil shares March PP (March 2004) 52.7 mil shares fully diluted
@ $.37/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.28
$15 mil MC
http://www.redfern.bc.ca/projects/tulsequah/exploration_resources.html#results
9 mil tonnes indicated and inferred at 107.5 g/t x .03215
= 31 mil ounces silver (3.4 oz/ton low grade silver, with other minerals)
(also have significant gold ($30/ton at $400/oz.) and zinc $60/ton at
$.46/lb.)
728,000 oz of Gold x 10 = 7.3 mil "silver equiv"
= 38.3 mil oz. silver equiv.
$15 mil MC / 38.3 mil oz = .38/oz.
You get "approx" 20 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: RDV has a "gold bonus". At $409/ gold, and $6.50/oz. silver, it's
about $300 million worth of gold, and $200 million worth of silver, or
about 60% of the value is in the gold. Since my method really
undercounts the gold, this means there is a significant "gold bonus"
here.
Redcorp Ventures Ltd.: Brokered Private Placement Financing Closed ($3 million)
ADB.V ADBRF.PK (ADMIRAL BAY RSCS) http://www.admiralbay.com/ info@admiralbay.com
604 628 5642 -- Curt Huber-- Business Development
33.3 mil shares fully dilluted. (March, 2004)
@ $1.37/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $1.03 US
$34 mil MC
They have $6 million cash.
--owns an option to earn 70% interest in "Miera San Jorge's Monte
del Favor property in Mexico"
"An historical resource estimate based on underground sampling at
Monte Del Favor is reported at 17 million tonnes grading 0.85 g/t gold and
224 g/t silver for a contained 123 million ounces of silver and 460,000 ounces
of gold." "While this resource estimate is not fully 43-101 compliant, the
Company considers that it provides a conceptual indication of the potential
of the property."
460,000 x 10 = 4.6 mil "silver equiv".
127.6 mil oz. x 70% interest = 89.3 mil oz.
$34 mil MC / 89.3 mil oz. = $.38/oz.
You get "approx" 20 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Prior grades hit 2-5 kilos silver/ ton.
(2000-5000g/ton. 70-176 oz. ton) Very high grades. The project
was never properly drilled with modern methods.
Admiral Bay acquired this option to own a 70% interest in this silver
property in June, 2003, and the acquisition did not impact their stock price
at that time at all. Previously, they were a gas company, and they
still have this other gas project, which may be more than half the intrinsic
value of the company according to Curt Huber, who understands the silver
story as expressed by Ted Butler and David Morgan.
My valuation method, obviously, does not give any value for their
gas projects, which therefore needs to be factored in as a significant "bonus". Company
goals for gas production are 2.5 million cubic feet/day by mid 2004,
which at $5 would be $12,500/day gross, and target is 7.5 million cubic
feet/day by the end of the year, again, at $5 would be $35,000/day
gross, or $12.8 mil/year gross.
They are actively digging, drilling, and releasing results in press
releases.
* SVL.V STVZF.PK (SILVRCRST MINES) (I own
shares) http://www.silvercrestmines.com/ info@silvercrestmines.com
(604) 691-1730 25.1 million fully diluted Dec 31, 2003
@ $1.65/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $1.24 US
$31 mil MC
$3 mil cash in the til.
Indicated resources of silver 30 mil oz.
Projects in Honduras.
Silver totals are projected to be: 75 - 135 mil oz. (not 43-101 compliant)
$31 mil MC / 75 = $.41/oz.
$31 mil MC / 135 = $.23/oz.
You get "approx" 18
ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential = 33++ oz.)
The project in El Salvador is only
20 km from the property in Honduras, and the property in Guatemala is
15km away, so only one mill will be needed for the three when a
production decision is made.
They have been and will be acquiring more silver properties with the
money raised in the late November 2003 private placement, which I think
is an outstanding way to spend the money.
I own shaers of SVL.V
HDA.V (HUSIF pink sheets symbol?) (HULDRA SILVER)
no website
Phone: Magnus 1 (604) 261-6040
6.924 million shares out (fully diluted) (Nov or Dec '03?)
@ $.58/share x .75 US/Cdn = US $.44
$3 mil MC
no debt
HDA's proven and probable reserves stand at 161,000 tons of
ore grading an average 25.6 ounces per ton silver, and 10 percent
combined
lead/zinc -- 4.12 mil oz silver, not including the zinc &
lead.
According to Magnus, the indicated and inferred reserves total
about 180,000
tons at about the same grading -- in other words, a further 4
million ounces of
silver.
~8 mil oz. silver
$3 mil MC / 8 mil oz. silver = $.38/oz.
You get "approx" 20
ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: There is a significant lead/zinc bonus.
"The property could be put into production at a capital cost of Cdn $3.5
million -- with payback of capital (when equity financed) within two years."
ASM.V ASGMF.PK (AVINO SILV GOLD) http://www.avino.com/ shares@avino.com
604 682-3701 -- David Wolfin
10.9 mil shares fully diluted, Nov. 2003 (with the 4 mil new shares
from PP)
(proposed PP in late Oct 2 mil units at $1.27 (unit = 1 share + 1
warrant at 1.58)
@ $1.99/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $1.49 US
$16 mil MC
from:
http://www.avino.com/other/goldstock100197.html
--in 1997
"How Much Silver Does Avino Have?"
"Operations at Avino's silver mine in Mexico are both open-pit and
underground. I examined the reserves and interpolated the tonnage into
silver ounces as follows: 28-million ounces proven; 50-million ounces probable
and 27 million ounces possible." (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves &
resources.--that is an old, third party report.)
--focus is on being silver company. A plus.
They actually have over five silver properties/projects. I'm
only have numbers to count for one, the "Avino mine".
= 28 + 50 + 27 = 105
Avino owns 49% of that, or 51.5 mil oz.
-"not considered reserves under the new Canadian National Policy
43-101"
$16 mil MC / 51.5 mil oz. = $.32/oz.
You get "approx" 24 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional notes: There are 4 additional silver properties that I
don't have numbers for. Consider this a "silver bonus"!!!
Mexican mining law once stated that a controlling interest had to
be owned by Mexicans, which explains why they only have a 49% interest.
That they don't have a controlling interest is a minus. This law has changed.
The mine was operational until the mine went into temporary closure in
November 2001. So there is in place an existing mine, with working infrastructure,
which is a bonus. There is a need for drilling in order to test the
potential that was stated in the feasibility study.
GGC.V GGCRF.PK (GENCO RESOURCES) http://www.gencoresources.com/
IR: Rob Blankstein: 604-682-2205, or info@gencoresources.com
11.9 mil shares (Dec. 2003)
@ $1.48/share x .75 US/Cdn = $1.11
$13 mil MC http://www.gencoresources.com/reserves.html
484 x .03215 = (15.5 oz) x 2.3 mil t = 35.8 mil oz. silver
2.00 x .03215 = 148,000 oz. gold x 10 = 1.5 mil oz. silver
385 x .03215 = ... x 95k = 1.2 mil oz silver
40+ mil oz. silver equiv. resources
2002 production, 500,000 oz. silver, 9000 oz. gold
$13 mil MC / 40 mil oz. silver = $.33/oz.
You get "approx" 23 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
CHD.V CHDSF.PK (CHARIOT RSCS) http://www.chariotresources.com/
45 mil shares fully diluted October 2003
@ $.325/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.24 US
$11 mil MC
Cello Ccasa (1 project of 4) Resource Estimate - August 2002
31.4 mil oz. silver, 134,000 oz. gold. (x 10 = 1.3) 32.7 mil oz.
(Still much exploration work to do.)
$11 mil MC / 32.7 mil oz. = $.34/oz.
You get "approx" 23 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
* MGN MNMM.OB (MINES MGMT) (I own shares) http://www.minesmanagement.com/
info@minesmanagement.com
(509) 838 6050 Doug Dobbs
11.7 mil shares fully diluted as of the March 4th 1.4 mil financing.
@ $7.30/share
$85 mil MC
261 mil oz. silver resources. Previous drilling spent over $100
million drilling the property.
$85 mil MC / 261 mil = $.33/oz.
You get "approx" 23 ounces
in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: MGN--new AMEX symbol will work next week.
As copper
moves up 5 cents/lb., it adds $100 million to the value of the deposit.
Mines Management owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana.
The other 90% owner, Noranda, simply gave up on the property and walked away
from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and political
concerns. That explains the rocketing share price. So,
the MNMM group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of
which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood
by the market, given the low relative price.
Their property also has about 60% of the value (at current prices) in
copper (copper at $1.35/lb.),
2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Doing the
math:
261 mil oz. silver x $6.70/oz. = $1.749 Billion.
2 Billion lbs copper
x $1.35/lb.. = $2.7 Billion.
Total value of mineralization before costs to extract:
$4.5 Billion.
Copper continues to move up. It's
(copper at $1.35/lb.). MNMM is both copper and silver! (Also, consider
Western Silver formerly Western Copper) Someday soon, investors are
going to rush into copper opportunities, if they are not already.
Mines Management will benefit from this.
They do not have an active working mine--which is a minus. They
will need to raise capital to get a mine going. Noranda had several
estimates for the cost to build a mine and mill, around $250 million.
But it could be less depending on how economic they decide to do things.
They are working on a feasibility study, and avoiding excessive dilution,
which is a plus.
Regarding environmental concerns: Noranda had a fully approved
Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that led to successful project permitting,
so environmental concerns were not a factor in Noranda's departure of the project in 2002.
UNCN.OB (
UNICO INC) http://www.uncn.net/
Ray Brown, 530-873-4394
70 mil shares
@ $.091/share
$6.4 mil MC
Three main properties:
Bromide-- 372,000 ounces
of gold?
Silver Bell--15 mil oz silver?
Deer Trail --287,000 ounces
of gold and 27 million ounces of silver... but the lease
on the Deer Trail will expire June 1 2004, so they need to raise significant
money in about 3 months.
49 mil oz. total.
$6.4 mil MC / 49 mil oz. = $.13/oz.
You have an expiring lease on "approx" 58 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: They need $4 million to exercise their option
to buy the "Deer Trail" property. They are considering various
options on how to do that. Ray Brown has been in this business a
long time, and is excited that he's got a bunch of younger guys working
on the property now, and he's encouraged by the upward direction of the
price of precious metals.
Explorers deserve their own category, since they cannot be valued by
my method of looking at reserves and resources of ounces of silver in the
ground. We do not know how many oz. they might have. They are exploring
for that.
This list, although at the bottom, in no way indicates that these companies
are more highly valued than companies listed above. It is also difficult
to categorize a company as an explorer, since all silver companies always
hold more silver properties that need to be explored.
(The order is by largest market cap first, not by "comparative value".)
I removed Imperial Metals because I could NOT see that they were a significant silver miner with significant silver resources.
EZM.V EZMCF.PK (EUROZINC MINING) http://www.eurozinc.com/
Fully Diluted: 224 million
@ $.71/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.53
$119 mil MC
MCAJF.PK (MACMIN LTD) http://www.macmin.com.au/
450 mil shares and options (Feb., 04)
@ $.19/share
$86 mil MC
"Total Inferred Resource is 34.5 million ozs silver but the district is
unexplored for epithermal silver and exploration to date suggests a
district potential of 50 to 100m ozs Ag or perhaps much more."
--"Macmin
is a silver focussed company" The Texas Silver Project has in-ground
resources
of 44.5Moz of silver equivalent. (They own some Malichite,
MAR.AX) Also, significant gold projects, perhaps several
multi-million oz. potential projects.
CDU.V CUEAF.PK (CARDERO RSCS) http://www.cardero.com/
Henk Van Alphen -- President (604) 408-7488
32 million shares fully diluted Dec. 11th , 2003
@ $3.47/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $2.60 US
$83 mil MC
($10 million Cdn cash in the till after $5.9 mil private placement
closed on Dec. 11th)
Speculated resources, or "exploration potential":
Providencia -- high grades, could have 100-250 mil oz.
Chingolo -- Will finish drilling by secnod week in November -- Henk
says, "may have 400-600 mil oz. "exploration potential" in 200-300 mil
tons of rock." They got 30-40 grams (1.23 oz.) on the first drill
hole, but hope to find 2-3 ounces silver/ton. Please note, "exploration
potential" is a non quantifiable, non-regulated, unauthorized type of estimate.
It is not 43-101 compliant. Trading decisions should probably not
be made on these kinds of shaky estimates, which may be only hype and hope.
An investor who wants to be protected by US regulations should wait for
geologists to pour over the drill results and produce numbers that comply
with 43-101 regulations, that may one day appear in a company press release.
(Also, the first time Cardero issued drilling results earlier this year,
the stock price was cut almost in half due to lower than expected results.
The stock price has since recovered.) Nevertheless, here's how those
"exploration potential" numbers work out if you do the math:
$83 mil MC / 500 mil oz exploration potential = $.17/oz.
$83 mil MC / 850 mil oz exploration potential = $.10/oz.
Exploration potential: you might get about 45 - 77 oz. silver
for one oz. silver worth of stock.
Cardero has three properties in Argentina; actively working on two:
Chingolo and Providencia. Chingolo was just measured as twice as
large as previously thought. They are trying to prove up these properties.
Providencia also has potentially high grades in several very large
conglomerate deposits that can be mined at a profit today. Their property
at Providencia was an active mine, but only a few tons/day. But they
hope to make a large open pit project out of the main deposit, processing
perhaps a few thousand tons/day.
High grades are very important in today's environment, especially
if you can buy them cheaply.
They are also acquiring more silver properties, which is another bonus.
This is an aggressive silver company. More properties help to alleviate
the risk of an explorer.
AOT.V
ASOLF.PK (ASCOT RSCS) http://www.bmts.bc.ca/aot/
1 604 684 8950
39.7 fully diluted. (Nov 2003)
@ $.42/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .31
$12.5 mil MC (US)
----
Additional comments: They own 5.82 million shares and 388,000 warrants
of Cardero at $.35, which usually a greater asset value than their market
cap. Ascot's share price is typically around 80% of the value of their Cardero Stock.)
(I'm listing this one out of order, not by market cap, and next to
Cardero, because of their position in Cardero.)
*IMR.V IMXPF.OB (IMA EXPL) (I own shares) http://www.imaexploration.com
43.4 mil Fully Diluted shares (May 1, 2003)
@ $3.40/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $2.55 U.S
$111 mil MC
Exploring in Argentina.
$4.5 million cash
Additional comments: Positive drilling results are coming in.
TVI.TO TVIPF.PK (TVI PACIFIC) http://www.tvipacific.com
Dianne (IR) Phone: (403) 265-4356
= 344 mil fully diluted Oct. 7th, 2003
@ $.255/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.19 US
$66 mil MC
"The company has a policy of not hedging or entering into forward
sales contracts."
Cash flow positive. !!! --> + 2.5 % royalty on "Rapu
Rapu" that should be worth about $1 million per year starting within 9-12
months. (a cash source for an explorer is a big plus)
14 projects in the Philippines.
Producing a dore bar of 96% silver and 4% gold from Canatuan project
with the following:
Total silver = 7.1 mil oz silver
Total gold = 182,000 oz. gold x 10 (@10:1) = 1.8 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv (Canatuan) = 8.9 mil oz.
+ they own a drilling company with 20 rigs.
+ they have a "foot in the door" in China.
+ many other promising exploration properties in the Asian Pacific.
Additional comments: This company exploded in price from 16
cents to 23.5 cents when they announced that they would be mining in China:
"TVI Pacific Inc. Receives Landmark Approval for Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprise
(WFOE) Status From Chinese Government". see
http://tinyurl.com/vwbw
They are primarily a silver explorer. The bonus is they are
a producer, and are cash flow positive, which are both extremely rare for
an explorer. In fact, the other producers mostly all lose money!
FCO.TO FCACF.PK (FORMATION CAPTL) (I own
shares) http://www.formcap.com/frhome.htm inform@formcap.com
604-682-6229 165 mil fully diluted, March 2004
@ $.55/share x .75 US/Cdn = $.415
$68 mil MC
(Recently completed $10 million financing)
Very large cobolt property: 1-3 million tons of 0.60% cobalt equivalent
Cobalt prices are racing ahead, up to $25-
$33/lb. see http://www.wmc-cobalt.com/prices.asp
2000 lbs/ton x 0.6% = 12 lbs/ton x
$29.50 /lb. = $354/ton
(rich ore)
Cobolt is $29.50/lb. recently,
up from $9/lb.
Formation Capital owns
the Sunshine Silver Refinery (near Sterling Mining), worth $50 million.
Break even cost $5-6/lb cobolt.
The Idaho Cobalt Project is projected to produce 1,500 tonnes of cobalt
per annum.
= 3,000,000 lbs. production x about $
20/lb profit? = about $60
mil profit/year???
FCO.TO also owns a few minor silver projects.
The cobolt project needs more drilling, and with recent financing,
things look bright.
Formation capital will be re-starting the Sunshine Silver Refinery--expected in early June.
I own shares of FCO.TO
IAU.V ITDXF.PK (INTREPID MINRLS) http://www.intrepidminerals.com/ scoates@intrepidminerals.com
Stephen Coates, Investor Relations (416) 368-4525
40.3 mil outstanding shares
50.6 mil fully diluted w/ Dec. 9 financing (good as of March 4,2004) @ $1.20/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .90 US
$46 mil MC
$3.2 million cash from Dec. 9 financing.
Company's exposure is about half to gold, half to silver in several
projects.
Joint Venture with BHP Billiton focused on "Cannington" style silver
deposits using proprietary BHP Billiton data.
(all figures are "exploration potential")
El Salvador - 38.5 mil oz.
Argentina - 6 mil oz.
Total: 44 mil oz. silver
Total gold: ~690k oz. x 10 (10:1 ratio) = ~ 6.9 mil oz. "silver
equiv"
Total: 53 mil oz. "silver equiv". (exploration potential or indicated
or inferred, not reserves)
$46 mil MC / 53 mil oz. = $.87/oz.
Hopefully, you get 8.67 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
The stock price exploded, nearly doubling, in response to the news of the above drilling results.
Since this company is about half gold and half silver, the 10:1 ratio
really cuts down the "silver equiv" numbers, so keep in mind the "gold
bonus" factor here. But it's like that with a lot of the companies
on this list, so keep that in mind, and do your own math if you want to
use the 70:1 ratio.
MAG.V MSLRF.PK (MAG SILVER) http://www.magsilver.com
28 mil fully diluted shares (Nov. 19, 2003)
@ $2.02/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = US $1.51
$42 mil MC
--"MAG Silver Corporation enters the silver market as a powerful force.
MAG combines a seasoned management team with two drill-ready geological
extensions of high-grade world class producing districts. MAG controls 100%
of the Juanicipio property adjacent to the Fresnillo District in central Mexico,
currently producing over 12% of the world's silver from high grade underground
vein structures."
The geologist, Peter K.M Megaw, is also working with EXN.V, another
high grade silver project. Peter's philosophy was that it makes sense
to go after very high grade silver projects that will be profitable regardless
of the silver price.
CAUCF.PK (CALEDON RES) http://www.caledonresources.com/
Shares Outstanding - 180,721,142
@ .23 at Yahoo!
(Mining in China)
It trades on the London Stock Exchange, under the symbol, CDN
$41 mil MC
* NPG.V NVPGF.PK (NEVADA PAC GOLD) (I own
shares) http://www.nevadapacificgold.com/ dhottman@nevadapacificgold.com
(604) 646-0188 David Hottman
= 43 mil shares fully diluted (Nov 26th, 2003 including recent PP)
@ $1.28/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.96 US
$41 mil MC
(up to $10 million cash in the til from recent PP)
Amador Canyon Silver Project: 50-250 mil tonnes
silver grades average 4 oz. sil/ ton in the deposit
= 200 to 1000 mil oz. silver????? --very speculative at this point.
Drilling needs to be done.
$41 mil MC / 200 mil oz. = $.21/oz.
$41 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.041/oz.
The inverse: you "might" get 36 - 183 ounces in the ground for 1 oz.
silver.
The 200 to 1000 mil oz. of silver
exploration potential estimate for the Amador Canyon project is based
on the size of the area, which may provide between 50 and 250 million
tonnes of ore, times a low grade of 4-6 ounce per ton. 50 mil tonnes x
4 oz/tonne = 200 mil oz., the low end of the target range. 250
million tonnes x 4 oz/tonne = 1000 mil oz., the high end of the
range. That target range is the expectation that the geologists
are hoping the drilling will prove up. It will likely take
several rounds of drilling and analysis of drill results to get a
proper resource calculation, and plenty of time.
NPG.V has 10 gold projects, and one silver-but it
may be big. The Chariman, David Hottman, says that 90% of the value
of the company is in gold, NOT silver, and yet, I'm buying this company
for the silver project of Amador Canyon only, and as if the gold componant was worth nothing.
(The gold projects are a free bonus, in my book, and help to alleviate the
risk of this explorer.)
Explorer in Nevada. They do not really know how much silver they might
they have in the Amador Canyon project. They just did a $2.5 million private placement, and another
$10 million private placement in late November. On the website,
for David Hottman's bio, it says he was a founding member of Eldorado gold.
"During his tenure, Eldorado's market capitalization grew from Cdn $7 million
in 1992 to a peak of Cdn $781 million in 1996." Please note, exploration
is risky, and costly.
Now that they are well-capitalized with over $10 million dollars, this
company will likely do very well as they drill and prove up the deposits
across all their properties.
I own shares of NPG.V
* MMGG.OB (METALLINE MINE) (I own
shares) http://www.metalin.com/site_map.html metalin@attglobal.net
Merlin Bingham 208-665-2002
14 mil shares fully diluted (Oct 23, 2003)
insiders buying on 9-10-2003 at about $1.30/share
insiders buying on 12-01-2003 at $1.66/share
@ $2.96/share US
$41 mil MC
Additional Comments: Zinc & Silver in Mexico: Sierra Mojada.
Sierra Mojada is a Silver District!
Silver: Historic production was 10 mil tons of high grade ore... historic
silver production went right "direct shiped" to the smelter, non-milled.
It contained 500-1000 grams silver/ton, or 17.65 to 35 oz. ton. This
means 170-353 million ounces of historic "high grading," non-milled, production.
(Who knows how much silver is left?) That's the question with
an explorer.
Zinc: Very high grades: 11.8% zinc. Potentially the lowest production
cost in the entire zinc industry due to new "oxide deposit" chemical extraction
process as revolutionary as "heap leaching". Exploring for up to
4 Billion pounds zinc.
Project ownership: MMGG terminated the buy-in agreement with
Penoles, who went into default, so MMGG now owns 100% of the project!
See http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031203/35526_1.html
I believe this is very good for MMGG, since the Penoles agreement made
it more difficult to quantify the value the company. Now, it is easier
to value the company, and the existing shareholders will own more of the
project and profits. It is important to note thatMMGG took the initiative to terminate the agreement. Penoles
did not issue a statement indicating any intent to walk away. Penoles'
delay or indecision caused them to lose the rights to their buy-in option
agreement. Just like if you have an "in the money" option, it's a
mistake to let it expire.
(Merlin of MMGG.OB, and Harlan of EXR.V (friends, actually) both have
reports that will educate you on the bullish story for Zinc.)
I own shares of MMGG.OB
* OTMN.PK (O.T. MINING) (I own shares) http://www.otmining.com/
--The website has been updated. info@otmining.com
Jim Hess Tel: 514-935-2445
8 mil fully diluted.
@ $5.00/share
$40 mil MC
Montana
Historic silver production for the Butte district, from 1880 to 2000 was 714,643,005 oz. silver.
They think their
deposit may be bigger than "the richest hill on earth", which is located
near their property, in the Butte district.
The exploration potential for this company is astounding, if they are right.
* FR.V FMJRF.PK (FIRST MAJESTIC) (I own shares) http://www.firstmajestic.com/s/Home.asp info@firstmajestic.com
15.8 mil shares fully diluted (Jan 30th, 2004) (+ 8 mil unit PP on March 15th) + 12 mil fully diluted shares 27.8 mil shares fully diluted March, 2004
from http://www.firstmajestic.com/s/ShareStructure.asp?ReportID=67945&_Title=Share-Structure
@ $1.84/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $1.38
$38 mil MC
from
http://www.jaba.com/2003/info/niko_2003_1.html
http://www.stockjunction.com/modules/emails/featuredprofiles/FR/majestic_sj.html
Up to 80% ownership of the Niko project which is similar to the Naica
Mine:
The Naica Mine: 4.3%Zn, 5.5%Pb, 6ozAg, 0.01ozAu, 0.34%Cu
(5 million tonnes reserves_
= 6 x 5 = 30 mil oz. silver x .8 = 24 mil oz.
The Niko project does not
have reserves, it is similar to the Nacia, which has reserves.
from
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/040113/first_majestic_mexico_1.html
Also, First Majestic acquired the La Parrilla
Silver Mine in Mexico, a former producing silver mine that closed
in 1999 due to low silver prices. They expect to re-open in 4 months,
producing 175,000 tonnes a year at 300g/t silver, which means 1.8 mil oz.
of silver produced per year. The cost to mine is estimated at $25-30/tonne,
and recovery is 85-90%. Cash
costs are expected to be $3/oz. So, if silver holds at $6.95,
then $4/oz. is profit, x 1.8 mil oz silver/year = $7.2 million
dollars/year after cash costs!
Do they understand the silver market? I think so! They linked an excerpt from my free e-book from goldismoney.com
" 8 Reasons why silver is a better investment than gold!
" see url here: http://tinyurl.com/xyyb
$38 mil MC
Additional comments: The other benefit of FR.V is that the
company is keen on acquiring new properties. This is where the best
money is made for a company in today's bull market in silver, in my
opinion. From the home page of the website:
"First Majestic recently announced the acquisition of Le Parrilla Silver Mine, Mexico, which is anticipated to be the first of several acquisitions over the coming months."
I own shares of FR.V
SPM.V SMNPF.PK (SCORPION MINING) http://www.scorpiomining.com
7.4 mil shares issued + 7.5 mil units (x 1.5) 18.7 mil shares fully diluted? March 2004
@ $2.35/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $1.76 US
$33 mil MC
MAI.V MNEAF.OB (MINERA ANDES) http://minandes.com/ ircanada@minandes.com
(604) 689-7017
73 mil fully diluted as of Nov. 2003
@ share $.47/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.35 US
$26 mil MC
To raise $6.6 mil in recent financing.
owns 49% of the resource: "55 mil silver equiv. oz. resource" back
in 2001. AT 60:1 silver:gold when gold was about $300/oz., about half/half
silver and gold.
Estimated: 27.5 mil oz silver
Estimated: 27.5 mil oz. "silver equiv" of gold.
/ 6 = 4.58 mil oz. silver equiv at 10:1 ratio.
Total: 27.5 + 4.6 = 32 mil oz. silver equiv. (x .49 (they own 49%)
= 15 mil oz.)
They will be exploring for more: (The resources may be only 10% of the property.)
2.2 km stretch, open another 2.7, plus 3 other vein systems.
significant high grade silver exploration potential. 7000 meters of
diamond drilling. Plus a copper project, billion ton ore deposit.
$26 mil MC
Additional comments: About half is gold value, half is silver
value at 60:1. Minera Andes has several significant bonuses that my
method is not valuing properly. First, I undercount the gold, of course,
so consider there is a "gold bonus" at current gold prices. Second,
they will be doing significant
exploration work to increase their resources, and they have recently
raised the money to be able to pay for that exploration work. Third,
they have a copper project, and copper prices are rising.
I moved MAI.V to the explorers list to be more fair to their valutation.
MMM.TO MMAXF.PK (MINCO MINING) http://www.mincomining.com/ investor-info@mincomining.ca
1-888-288-8288 23 mil
Fully Diluted
@ $1.82/share x .75 US/Cdn = $1.36
$31 mil MC
Located in China
2 gold projects and 1 silver (42% owned). Explorer
$31 mil MC
DNI.V DMNKF.PK (DUMONT NICKEL) http://www.dumontnickel.com info@dumontnickel.com
(416) 595-1195
56.4 mil shares outstanding
@ $.44/share x .75 US/Cdn = $.33
$18.6 mil MC
Dumont still needs to raise and pay several million to clifton for
50%-60% of each property, and there are many properties.
(See Clifton for more specifics on the JV agreement.)
Additional comments: Clifton's JV partner, doing active drilling
work right now. And recent
property acquisitions. I moved Dumont to the explorer category,
because I really don't have any idea what percent of Clifton's property they
may acquire, which depends on Dumont completing a feasibility study on each property.
There seems to be significant
disagreement between Clifton's shareholders and Dumont's shareholders
on which company has the better value. On the one hand,
Dumont is the aggressive partner, since they are the one doing the
acquiring. On the other hand, Clifton is the holder of most of
the properties, and Dumont has to pay several million to acquire each
of the many properties. This is a very complex deal. I do
not like JV agreements due to the complexity of trying to determine
ownership.
SML.V SMLZF.PK (STEALTH MNRLS) http://www.stealthminerals.com
Email-Bill@McWilliam.com 604-306-0391 Bill McWilliam, Chief Executive
Officer
48 mil shares (August 31-
02)
@ $.51/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.38
$18 mil MC
NBG.V NBULF.PK (NEW BULLET GP) http://www.newbulletgroup.com/index.htm
50 mil shares fully diluted (including 15 mil new PP) http://www.newbulletgroup.com/financial.htm
@ $.405/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.30 US
$15 mil MC
NBG.V has a gold deposit in Brazil that's bigger than the silver project
in Mexico. http://www.newbulletgroup.com/mexico.htm
" If the deposit extends to considerable depth, as do many of the silver
deposits in the region, it is reasonable to assume a deposit of 300 million
ounces of silver."
Stroud Resources, JV partner, lists the deposit at 150-300 million
oz. http://www.newbulletgroup.com/April1820022.pdf
NBG.V partners with SDR.V
NBG.V to get a 50-70% interest.
50% x 150 mil oz.= 75 mil oz., 70% x 300 mil oz. = 210 mil
oz.
$15 mil MC / 75 mil oz. = .20 oz.
$15 mil MC / 210 mil oz. = .07 oz.
Exploration potential = 37 - 105 oz. per oz. worth of shares.
SDR.V SDURF.PK
(STROUD
RSCS) (There is no PK symbol
as yet) http://www.stroudresourcesltd.com/projects-santo.html gcoburn@stroudresourcesltd.com
Mr. George E. Coburn, President Tel: 416-362-4126
Fully Diluted 69,745,562
@ $.21/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .16
$11 mil MC
JV partner with NBG.V on Santo Domingo Silver Project in Mexico.
150 to 300 mil oz. exploration potential of the deposit.
ownership is between 30-50%, so... 30% of 150 mil oz.= 45 mil oz., and 50% of 300 mil oz. = 150 mil oz.
$11 mil MC / 45 mil oz. =
$11 mil MC /150 mil oz. =
* CBE.V CBEFF.PK (CABO MINING)(I
own shares) http://www.cabo.ca/ jav@cabo.ca
(604) 681-8899 John Versfelt, President
Fully diluted subtotal, including shares needed to acquire two drilling
companies, which is contingent upon a financing.
= 18,880,436 as of February 9th, 2004 (Post-Consolidated) (Plus a proposed $5 million financing to acquire the two drilling companies.)
@ $1.00/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .75
$14 mil MC
Cabo Mining issued a
4 page press release
on Jan. 5 detailing their contracts to acquire two drilling companies.
Although I'm generally wary about
excessive dilution, this second PP is well-needed. The first $5
million PP was primarily for the drilling companies, and the second
will allow the company to explore the Cobalt properties better.
Cabo has exposure to silver, cobolt, nickel, gold, diamonds, and drilling
companies.
Regarding the contracts to acquire two drilling companies in Canada:
With all the money raised lately by so many companies to do exploration
work now that precious metals prices have increased, I think drilling companies
will be very busy making money. This will give the company positive
cash flow after they raise the money to acquire the drilling companies.
Cabo had a significant discovery, as indicated in a press
release on Feb 4. Some of their grab samples have very high percentages
of Cobalt and Nickel. One vein grab sample was almost 30% nickel,
(2 over 20%), which is at $7/pound. Three samples were over 3% Cobalt,
which is at $30/pound.
To learn more about the mining
camp town of Cobalt, there is a fascinating article detailing the
history of the camp at http://www.cobalt.ca/cobalt/history.htm
I own shares of CBE.V
EXN.V EXLLF.PK (EXCELLON RSCS) http://www.excellonresources.com
87 mil shares fully diluted (Jan 9, 2004 press release)
(Previously, I had listed a number of 114 mil shares, which was, apparantly
incorrect. I don't know how the mistake was made, or what my source
was for the 114 mil shares.)
@ $.255/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.17 US
$15 mil MC
From http://www.smartstox.com/reports/excellon.html
indicated = 63,400 t x 2738 g/t x
.03215oz./g = 5.6 mil oz. silver
inferred = 2100 t x 1,433 g/t x .03215oz./g
= .1 mil oz. silver
"gross in-situ value of mineralization is $31.4 million."
EXN to own 51% of the project. Apex is the joint partner. 51%
x 6.2 mil oz. = 3.16 mil oz.
(Company expects 114 mil shares fully diluted after takover of Destorbelle,
needed to bring project ownership up to 51%)
$15 mil MC
Additional comments: "Excellon ...is exploring and developing".... "a
Bonanza grade Silver deposit in Mexico." The geologist, Peter
K.M Megaw, is also working with MAG.V. From J. Taylor's write up on
2002: "After subtracting capital cost of US $1.8 million, custom milling
charges and operating costs, management believes this underground development
mine can, over the next two years, generate US $15.8 million or nearly $8
million for EXN's 51% share." The company plans to use these proceeds to
further drill and explore the property. They believe the property may
contain significantly more silver, as if what's known is only the tail of
the tiger; furthermore, they believe they can fund exploration by mining
the high-grade silver deposit that has been partly drilled.
EPZ.V ESPZF.PK (ESPERANZA SILVR) http://www.esperanzasilver.com/s/Home.asp
20 million shares fully diluted
@ $.98/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = US $.73
$15 mil MC
"Esperanza Silver Corporation is solely dedicated to the identification,
acquisition and exploration of new silver projects." Looking
for high grades.
BCM.V BCEKF.PK (BEAR CRK MINING) http://www.bearcreekmining.com/s/Home.asp
39.2 million shares fully diluted
@ $.50/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.375 US
$15 mil MC
--About 6 properties in Peru (I wonder if Peru presents a significant
political risk, given what happened to MAN.TO, or whether that was an isolated
case in Peru? I don't know either way.)
NJMC.OB (NEW JERSEY MIN) http://www.newjerseymining.com/
Fred or Grant Brackebusch
minesystems@usamedia.tv
21.3 fully diluted Feb. '04 @ $.75/share US
$16 mil MC
New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC) is engaged in exploring for
and developing gold, silver and base metal ore reserves in the Coeur d'Alene
Mining District of northern Idaho also known as the Silver Valley - one
of the world's richest silver districts.
CHMN.PK (CHESTER MINING) http://www.chestermining.com/
Bill Hoyt, 785-383-9246
"
2.3 million shares outstanding, positive working capital and no debt
"
@ $5.00/share US
$12 mil MC http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031121/215141_1.html
Historic estimate: "defined Conjecture mineral reserves of 706,000
tons grading 11.8 ounces per ton (oz/t) silver"
--
the Conjecture Mine, with a lease-option agreement signed with Shoshone
Silver Mining Company
= 8.3 million ounces of silver (leased out) Since Chester will
be receiving royalties, it makes it harder for me to value this company.
$12 mil MC
KG.V KDKGF.PK (KLONDIKE
GOLD) (I own shares)
http://www.klondikegoldcorp.com/
70 mil fully diluted (Nov. 2003)
@ $.26/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.20 US
5 year high .30
$14 mil MC
This company has many silver and gold properties. Some of the
people are also involved with GNG.V, Golden Goliath.
Klondike has one silver property that could be producing within weeks.
(I own shares of KG.V)
GNG.V GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH) http://www.goldengoliath.com/
604-682-2950
32.4 mil shares fully diluted
@ $.375/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.28
$9 mil market cap
Additional comments: Silver Explorer in Mexico in the the Sierra
Madre mountains: Uruachic.
Doing active drilling on their silver property, Las Bolas, "in a
month" (as of Oct. 7th). They hope to take a collection of old silver
mines and make them open pittable. They have some very high grades
from chip samples from the tunnels, ranging from 100g to 500g all the way
up to around and over 1000g/ton of silver.
MMG.V MMEEF.PK (MCMILLAN GOLD) http://www.macmillangold.com/
25.6 mil shares outstanding (3q 2003 report June, 2003)
@ $.485/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.36
$9 mil MC
* KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY) (I own
shares) http://www.kenrich-eskay.com/
Toll-free 1-888-805-3940
16 mil shares outstanding Use "fully diluted" to be safe.
@ $.78/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .59
$9 mil MC
Adjacent to Barrick's silver property, Eskay Creek, which is "the fifth largest
silver producer in the world". 70% of The Property was once almost bought by Homestake (which was acquired by Barrick) for $35 million in 1996.
I own shares of KRE.V
EGD.V EGDMF.PK (ENERGOLD MINING) http://www.energold.com/s/Default.asp
Fred Davidson President (604) 681-9501 info@energold.com
16.8 million Fully Diluted (June 30, 2002)
@ $.75/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.56
$9 mil MC
LEG.V LEGCF.PK (LATEEGRA RSCS) http://www.lateegra.com
Michael Townsend, President Toll Free: 1-866-669-9377 Richard one of the IR guys. 38.7 fully diluted? (Jan 7, 2004)
@ $.22/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.17 US
$6 mil MC
see also Teuton Resources Corp (TUO.V)
Additional Comments: --Bonanza grades. Newmont called
them, noticed the property. Flew out a guy. El Tigre in Mexico:
gold/silver bonanza style mineralization. Top grades: 62g/T
gold 15,500g/T silver historic production, from trenching and surface
sampling in late 90's. Cash on hand: $500,000 CAN
SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER) http://www.shoshone-mining.com
Bill Hoyt, 785-383-9246
12 mil shares
@ $.65 US
$8 mil MC
In Cour d'Alene, near CDE, HL, & SRLM.PK
BGS.V BLDGF.PK (BALLAD GLD SLVR) http://www.balladnet.com
16.3 mil shares outstanding
(fully diluted?)
@ $.50/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.375 US
$6 mil MC
Bonanza grade "grab samples" in southern Argentina near IMA
* AUN.V AUNFF.PK (Aurcana Corp) (I own shares) http://www.aurcana.com/
CEO Ken Booth 604-331-9333 kbooth@aurcana.com
45 million shares (fully diluted) (March 2004)
@ $.17/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.13 US
$5.7 mil MC
Drilling to commence on high-grade, gold-silver targets. (in Mexico)
(I own shares of AUN.V) SRY.V (STINGRAY RSCS) http://www.stingrayresources.com/ info@stingrayresources.com
(416) 368 6240 5.9 mil
fully diluted
@ $1.05/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.79
$5 mil MC - Current projects centered in the Sierra Madre Belt of Mexico
PCM.V PAOCF.PK (PAC COMOX RES) http://www.pacificcomox.com/
66 mil fully diluted Jan, 2004 (From Dec 11, 2003 press release and
2002 report)
@ $.15/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .11
$7 mil MC
BBR.V BBRRF.PK (BRETT RES) http://www.bmts.bc.ca/bbr/
17.2 fully diluted
@ $.29/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.22
$3.7 mil MC
Silver projects:
Yukon --grab sample of 611 g/t Ag
Argentina --samples from 31 to 5640 g/t Ag
TUO.V TEUTF.PK (TEUTON RES) http://www.teuton.com/
Dino Cremonese, P.Eng. President (604) 682-3680
20.6 mil fully diluted (July 28,2003)
@ $.35/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.26
$5 mil MC
"Management of Teuton and Lateegra are highly encouraged by the prospective
results from the Del Norte exploration to date
located in the Eskay Creek region"
ASLM.PK (AMER SILVER MINI)
2.75 million shares issued
@ $1.50/share
$4.1 mil MC
Claim between CDE and the old Sunshine mine.
JV with CDE subsidiary until 2017. ASLM to receive 20% net royalty,
& if silver prices reach $16.50 an ounce or above, the profit
sharing goes to 40%.
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
ROK.V ROCAF.PK (ROCA MINES INC) http://www.rocamines.com
14.3 mil fully diluted (July 15, 2003)
@ $.20/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .15
$2.1 mil MC
CBP.V CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN) http://www.pacific-bay.com/
Guilford Brett, IR (604) 682-2421
9.2 mil shares outstanding
@ $.20/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = .15
$1.4 mil MC
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Final Category: Silver stocks FOR YOU and I TO RESEARCH further:
I strongly recommend you try to "get ahead of me," and research these
stocks to see if I left out any great values. I probably did.
I simply did not have time, or could not yet find information (without using
the telephone) on all the two key figures needed to get the "price per oz."
in the ground. You need: 1. The number of shares fully diluted
x share price to get the market cap. Then, 2., you need an estimate
of the oz. in the ground. Usually, I've been finding the oz.
in the ground resource estimates right off the company webpages, and I
get the number of shares by looking for it burried in the financial statements
like the quarterlies or annual reports, which are also usually right on
the company webpages. Have fun researching for silver
companies, and let me know if you find any good ones, and I'll add them
to this list. QTA.V QURAF.PK (QUATERRA RES) http://www.quaterraresources.com/
Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
# shares uncertain.
three main properties in North America
@ $.???/share Cdn x .75 US/Cdn = $.53 US
QTA.V is a Sister Company to Western Silver, WTZ above.
PXI.V, PNXPF.PK
Planet Exploration Inc. http://www.planetexploration.info/mexico.asp
Planet holds an option to acquire a 100% interest in the high-grade
7,005-hectare Copalquin gold/silver property located in Durango, Mexico.
"Resource estimates on the property have not been calculated since the
discovery of the high-grade vertical fault zone, its existence may
significantly alter Kennecott's and Fransisco Gold's original target
potential of one million ounces of gold and 50 million ounces of silver
based on their interpretation of a low-grade horizontal quartz breccia
formation."
ATN.TO/ATNAF.PK (Atna Resources Ltd.)
37.1 mil shares fully diluted ??? http://www.atna.com/s/Home.asp
The company holds a diverse portfolio of gold, silver, zinc and copper
properties in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Chile.
From http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=4996
37 M shares (fully diluted)
(Wolverine) 40% of 2300 Mg Ag = 30 Moz Ag
+ (Marg) 67% of 340 Mg Ag = 7,5 Moz Ag
+ (Wolf) 67% of 340 Mg Ag = 7,5 Moz Ag
+ (Nevada explorations) 40% of ?
+ (Ecstall) 140 Mg Ag = 4,7 Moz Ag
The Wolverine Project is a joint
venture between Atna (40%) and Expatriate Resources Ltd. (60%). Legend Mining LEG.AX LGDMF.PK http://www.legmin.com.au/
specialising in exploration and production of silver.
Silver at the Munni Munni Joint Venture in the West Pilbara region of
Western Australia
Email to me said: "Legend Mining just bought a 70,000 ounces per
year gold mine in Western Australia."
Mascot Silver Lead Mines MSLM.PK http://www.mascotsilver.com/
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
"Though we have reserves and could conceivably mine them, it frankly
makes no sense to do so at current prices. ... The end of the silver bear
will bring a number of the now-dormant small companies back to life..."
Silver Buckle Mines Inc (SBUM.PK)
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Merger Mines Corp (MERG.PK)
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Silver Bowl http://www.silver-bowl.com/
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
--working to get a new stock transfer company http://www.oxusgold.co.uk/
216,559,942 Fully Diluted shares
oxus will spin off: Khandiza is a high-grade zinc, silver, copper
and lead deposit located in the Sariasia region of southeast Uzbekistan.
Silver Mountain Lead Mines Inc (SMLM.PK)
Silver Verde May Mining Co (SIVE.PK)
Metropolitain Mines Ltd (MEMLA.PK)
Silver Surprize Inc (SLSR.PK)
Standard Silver Corp (SDSI.PK)
Horn Silver Mines Co (HRNS.PK)
(801)-281-5656
Andean American Mining Corp AAG.V ANMCF.PK http://www.andeanamerican.com/
--concentrates solely in Peru
Peru currently stands as the largest gold producer and second largest
copper producer in Latin America as well as the second largest silver producer
in the world.
Articles like this one, that present opportunities like these, can tend
to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful when buying. If you place
any market orders at the open for any of these small stocks, you might end
up buying at prices that are significantly higher than you intended.
Limit orders might be better, but then, you run the risk of your order
not being filled if the stock price exceeds your limit. And bid /
ask spreads such as 15% on small cap silver stocks are not unusual.
Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership on the internet.
I've seen markets moved even by small private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com
and silver-investor.com (I subscribe to both). Some of these stocks can
move up 15%, 30%, 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations
can change very, very quickly. So, be careful, and re-check the numbers if
the prices move up. Do your own math.
Also note, the majority of these companies have an emphasis on silver.
Most silver is produced as a by product of other mining, like lead or zinc
or copper mining. Those companies that primarily produce other minerals
are not featured in this report. This also helps to explain and prove,
that silver is undervalued. If silver miners cannot mine silver profitably,
and this report shows that to be true, then something is wrong with the
silver price. It must go higher.
This report, and my method of valuing silver companies, depends on a
much higher price for silver than exists today to be most accurate and most
successful. If silver prices go up significantly, my picks will do
well. If silver prices remain flat, then many of my picks should not
do well.
Several people have told me that they don't get information this good
even when they sign up for annual newsletter subscriptions from others that
cost from $100 - $300.
The beauty of the internet is that it is helping knowledge to increase,
and it is a form of communication that those who commit crimes of
monetary fraud upon us cannot control. Please make the most of
it, and please forward this on to others.
You can help to make sure you can keep getting this report for free
if you sign up at goldismoney.com
Final Disclaimer: I have not received any compensation from any
public silver stock company for writing up my weekly report on "Silver Stocks--Comparative
Valuations". I own shares of the following 14 silver stocks: AUN.V, EDR.V, IMR.V, KG.V, (MGN) MNMM.OB, CBE.V, NPG.V,
SVL.V, MMGG.OB, TM.V, OTMN.PK, FCO.TO, KRE.V, FR.V. These are required disclaimers by the SEC: whether I've
been paid, and what I own. I believe the SEC intended this to be
a cautionary note that I own these shares, not as a recommendation or
endorsement. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock at any
time. I believe the SEC does not requrie a disclosure regarding
finder's fees. Nevertheless, I have begun to receive "finder's
fees" from a few companies.
